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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Federal Court Upholds Trudeau's Prorogation Decision

 

In a landmark ruling, the Federal Court has dismissed a legal challenge against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's decision to prorogue Parliament earlier this year. The challenge, brought forward by two Nova Scotia residents, argued that Trudeau's move lacked reasonable justification and undermined Parliament's constitutional role. However, Chief Justice Paul Crampton concluded that the Prime Minister acted within his constitutional authority.

The court acknowledged the applicants' concerns about the growing concentration of power in the executive branch but found no evidence that Trudeau's decision exceeded legal limits or was solely driven by partisan motives. The ruling emphasized that the Prime Minister's advice to the Governor General, Mary Simon, to prorogue Parliament was not subject to judicial review in this context.

Trudeau had justified the prorogation as a necessary "reset" for a gridlocked Parliament and announced his intention to resign as Liberal leader, paving the way for new leadership. The decision has sparked debate about the balance of power between Canada's executive and legislative branches, but for now, the court's ruling affirms the legality of Trudeau's actions.

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