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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Federal Court Upholds Trudeau's Prorogation Decision

 

In a landmark ruling, the Federal Court has dismissed a legal challenge against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's decision to prorogue Parliament earlier this year. The challenge, brought forward by two Nova Scotia residents, argued that Trudeau's move lacked reasonable justification and undermined Parliament's constitutional role. However, Chief Justice Paul Crampton concluded that the Prime Minister acted within his constitutional authority.

The court acknowledged the applicants' concerns about the growing concentration of power in the executive branch but found no evidence that Trudeau's decision exceeded legal limits or was solely driven by partisan motives. The ruling emphasized that the Prime Minister's advice to the Governor General, Mary Simon, to prorogue Parliament was not subject to judicial review in this context.

Trudeau had justified the prorogation as a necessary "reset" for a gridlocked Parliament and announced his intention to resign as Liberal leader, paving the way for new leadership. The decision has sparked debate about the balance of power between Canada's executive and legislative branches, but for now, the court's ruling affirms the legality of Trudeau's actions.

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