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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Mark Carney to Contest Nepean Seat in Upcoming Election

Mark Carney, the leader of the Liberal Party and former governor of the Bank of Canada, has announced his candidacy for the Ottawa riding of Nepean in the upcoming federal election. This decision follows the party's recent revocation of Chandra Arya's nomination, who has represented the riding since 2015. Carney's move to run in Nepean places him in close proximity to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who is seeking re-election in the neighboring riding of Carleton. The election is set to take place on April 28, marking a pivotal moment in Canadian politics. 

Carney's candidacy is expected to bring significant attention to the Nepean riding, as he aims to secure a seat in the House of Commons while leading the Liberal Party's campaign.

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