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June Jobs Report: What It Means for the Bank of Canada's July 15 Decision

  Friday, July 10, 2026 Statistics Canada releases its June Labour Force Survey today, and the timing couldn't matter more. This is the last major economic data point before the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision on July 15, 2026 — and whichever way the jobs numbers break, they'll shape what happens to borrowing costs for the rest of the summer. What Economists Are Expecting Consensus forecasts point to a modest but positive jobs report. Economists expect Canada added around 10,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.6%. That would follow a much stronger May, when the economy added 88,000 jobs and the unemployment rate actually fell by 0.3 percentage points. In other words, June's report is expected to show a cooling-off after May's surprise strength — not a reversal, but a return to a more modest pace of hiring. Indicator May 2026 June 2026 (Forecast) Net Employment Change +88,000 jobs +10,000 jobs (expected) Unemployment Rate 6....
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Market Momentum: Futures Rise Amid Tariff Uncertainty

U.S. stock futures showed gains early Monday as investors navigated a mix of optimism and caution. The S&P 500 futures climbed 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.8%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged up 0.4%. This comes after a volatile February, with markets now bracing for key developments this week.

A major focus is the looming tariff deadlines set for March 4, which could impact trade with Canada, Mexico, and China. While 25% duties are planned, officials have hinted at potential adjustments, leaving markets in a "fluid situation." Investors are also eyeing the Federal Reserve's next meeting and Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show modest job growth with unemployment steady at 4%.

Adding to the mix, cryptocurrencies surged after President Trump announced the inclusion of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets in a new U.S. strategic cryptocurrency reserve. This move has sparked significant market activity, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $94,000.

As the week unfolds, retail earnings from companies like Target and Costco will provide further insights into consumer resilience amid economic uncertainties. Markets remain on edge, balancing hopes for growth against the challenges of global trade and economic policy.

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