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Fed Poised for First 2025 Rate Cut as Weak Jobs Data Outweigh Inflation Concerns

  The Federal Reserve seal at its Washington, D.C. headquarters, where policymakers are set to decide on the first interest rate cut of 2025. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points today, marking its first rate cut of 2025 and the first since December last year. The move would bring the federal funds target range down to 4.00%–4.25%, as policymakers respond to slowing job growth and rising unemployment, even as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Recent labor market data showed just 22,000 jobs added in August, with earlier months revised downward, while the unemployment rate has climbed to around 4.3%. Inflation, measured by the Fed’s preferred PCE index, has edged higher in recent months, partly due to tariffs pushing up consumer prices. Markets have largely priced in the cut, with investors watching the Fed’s updated “dot plot” for clues on whether more reductions will follow in October and December. The decision ...
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Market Momentum: Futures Rise Amid Tariff Uncertainty

U.S. stock futures showed gains early Monday as investors navigated a mix of optimism and caution. The S&P 500 futures climbed 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.8%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged up 0.4%. This comes after a volatile February, with markets now bracing for key developments this week.

A major focus is the looming tariff deadlines set for March 4, which could impact trade with Canada, Mexico, and China. While 25% duties are planned, officials have hinted at potential adjustments, leaving markets in a "fluid situation." Investors are also eyeing the Federal Reserve's next meeting and Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show modest job growth with unemployment steady at 4%.

Adding to the mix, cryptocurrencies surged after President Trump announced the inclusion of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets in a new U.S. strategic cryptocurrency reserve. This move has sparked significant market activity, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $94,000.

As the week unfolds, retail earnings from companies like Target and Costco will provide further insights into consumer resilience amid economic uncertainties. Markets remain on edge, balancing hopes for growth against the challenges of global trade and economic policy.

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