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5 Things to Know Today: Fed Decision Looms, TSX Slides, Gas Prices Climb (Sept 16)

  Wednesday, September 16, 2026 The Fed's biggest decision in years lands at 2 p.m. ET today, the TSX and loonie are both licking their wounds, and drivers are paying more at the pump despite the gas tax holiday. Here's what's moving your money this morning. 1. The Fed Decides on Rates Today — and a Hike Looks All but Certain The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to follow at 2:30 p.m. Markets have priced in over 90% odds of a 25-basis-point hike, which would lift the target range to 3.75%–4.00% from 3.50%–3.75%, where it's sat since December. It would be the first hike of this cycle, driven by inflation still running above target even as the labour market holds up. What it means for you: A Fed hike widens the gap with the Bank of Canada's 2.25% rate, which tends to pressure the loonie lower and nudge Canadian bond yields — and by extension fixed mortgage pricing — upward. Watch for the reaction ...
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Market Momentum: Futures Rise Amid Tariff Uncertainty

U.S. stock futures showed gains early Monday as investors navigated a mix of optimism and caution. The S&P 500 futures climbed 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.8%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged up 0.4%. This comes after a volatile February, with markets now bracing for key developments this week.

A major focus is the looming tariff deadlines set for March 4, which could impact trade with Canada, Mexico, and China. While 25% duties are planned, officials have hinted at potential adjustments, leaving markets in a "fluid situation." Investors are also eyeing the Federal Reserve's next meeting and Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show modest job growth with unemployment steady at 4%.

Adding to the mix, cryptocurrencies surged after President Trump announced the inclusion of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets in a new U.S. strategic cryptocurrency reserve. This move has sparked significant market activity, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $94,000.

As the week unfolds, retail earnings from companies like Target and Costco will provide further insights into consumer resilience amid economic uncertainties. Markets remain on edge, balancing hopes for growth against the challenges of global trade and economic policy.

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