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What to Expect from the Bank of Canada on July 15 — And What It Means for Your Mortgage

  The next rate decision is just 17 days away. With inflation running hot, Canada in a technical recession, and mortgage rates on a knife's edge, here is everything you need to know before the announcement. The Short Answer: A Hold Is Almost Certain On July 15, 2026 , the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its sixth consecutive interest rate decision since October 2025 — and virtually every indicator points to another hold at 2.25% . The Bank has not moved its overnight rate since it cut to 2.25% last fall. After nine total cuts between June 2024 and October 2025, the easing cycle is effectively paused. Markets currently price the probability of a hike on July 15 at just 1%, and the chance of a cut at around the same slim odds. In other words: almost no one expects anything to change on announcement day. But a "hold" decision does not mean nothing matters. July 15 is one of four dates each year when the BoC releases a full Monetary Policy Report (MPR) alongside its rate ...
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Market Momentum: Futures Rise Amid Tariff Uncertainty

U.S. stock futures showed gains early Monday as investors navigated a mix of optimism and caution. The S&P 500 futures climbed 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.8%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged up 0.4%. This comes after a volatile February, with markets now bracing for key developments this week.

A major focus is the looming tariff deadlines set for March 4, which could impact trade with Canada, Mexico, and China. While 25% duties are planned, officials have hinted at potential adjustments, leaving markets in a "fluid situation." Investors are also eyeing the Federal Reserve's next meeting and Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show modest job growth with unemployment steady at 4%.

Adding to the mix, cryptocurrencies surged after President Trump announced the inclusion of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets in a new U.S. strategic cryptocurrency reserve. This move has sparked significant market activity, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $94,000.

As the week unfolds, retail earnings from companies like Target and Costco will provide further insights into consumer resilience amid economic uncertainties. Markets remain on edge, balancing hopes for growth against the challenges of global trade and economic policy.

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