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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Mexico Prepares for Potential Tariffs with Contingency Plans

Mexico is bracing itself for the possibility of U.S. President Donald Trump imposing tariffs on its goods. President Claudia Sheinbaum assured the public during a press conference that the country is well-prepared with multiple contingency plans, though she refrained from disclosing specific details. "We have a plan B, C, D," Sheinbaum stated, emphasizing Mexico's readiness for any outcome.

The tariff threat stems from U.S. concerns over issues like synthetic drug trafficking and migrant arrivals at its borders. Trump has criticized both Mexico and Canada for not taking stronger action on these matters. In response, Mexican officials recently engaged in diplomatic talks with their U.S. counterparts in Washington, which Sheinbaum described as "cordial" and productive.

While the outcome remains uncertain, Sheinbaum's reassurances highlight Mexico's proactive approach to safeguarding its economy and maintaining strong bilateral relations with the U.S.

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