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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...

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Russia Awaits Clarity on US-Ukraine Ceasefire Proposal

Russia has expressed caution as it awaits further details on a proposed 30-day ceasefire agreement between the United States and Ukraine. The deal, reached during talks in Saudi Arabia, includes a temporary halt to hostilities along the entire front line, as well as the cessation of missile, drone, and bomb attacks. The agreement also outlines provisions for the release of prisoners and the return of Ukrainian children relocated to Russia.

The United States has resumed military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, signaling its commitment to the ceasefire plan. However, the proposal hinges on Russia's acceptance, with U.S. officials emphasizing that Moscow's cooperation is essential for achieving peace.

While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed readiness to support the ceasefire, Russian officials remain skeptical. Concerns have been raised about the lack of guarantees accompanying the proposal, with some viewing it as a potential trap that could weaken Russia's position.

The Kremlin has yet to issue an official response, but the international community watches closely as the possibility of a ceasefire brings a glimmer of hope for an end to the prolonged conflict.

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