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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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U.S. Imposes 50% Tariffs on Canadian Steel and Aluminum Amid Trade Tensions

In a significant escalation of trade tensions, U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a 50% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from Canada, effective midnight. This decision doubles the previously threatened 25% tariff and comes in response to Ontario's recent imposition of a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the United States.

The move has sparked concerns about its potential impact on both economies. Canadian officials have expressed dismay, warning of retaliatory measures, while U.S. manufacturers and consumers brace for higher costs. President Trump has also hinted at further tariffs on Canadian automobiles if the dispute remains unresolved.

This development marks a new chapter in the ongoing trade disputes between the two nations, with significant implications for industries and markets on both sides of the border.

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