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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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U.S. Imposes 50% Tariffs on Canadian Steel and Aluminum Amid Trade Tensions

In a significant escalation of trade tensions, U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a 50% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from Canada, effective midnight. This decision doubles the previously threatened 25% tariff and comes in response to Ontario's recent imposition of a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the United States.

The move has sparked concerns about its potential impact on both economies. Canadian officials have expressed dismay, warning of retaliatory measures, while U.S. manufacturers and consumers brace for higher costs. President Trump has also hinted at further tariffs on Canadian automobiles if the dispute remains unresolved.

This development marks a new chapter in the ongoing trade disputes between the two nations, with significant implications for industries and markets on both sides of the border.

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