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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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U.S. Imposes 50% Tariffs on Canadian Steel and Aluminum Amid Trade Tensions

In a significant escalation of trade tensions, U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a 50% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from Canada, effective midnight. This decision doubles the previously threatened 25% tariff and comes in response to Ontario's recent imposition of a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the United States.

The move has sparked concerns about its potential impact on both economies. Canadian officials have expressed dismay, warning of retaliatory measures, while U.S. manufacturers and consumers brace for higher costs. President Trump has also hinted at further tariffs on Canadian automobiles if the dispute remains unresolved.

This development marks a new chapter in the ongoing trade disputes between the two nations, with significant implications for industries and markets on both sides of the border.

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