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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Carney and Trump Set to Meet Amid Renewed Diplomatic Focus

 

Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump are preparing for their first in-person meeting following a phone call on Tuesday. The conversation, which came shortly after Carney's election victory, emphasized the importance of Canada and the United States collaborating as independent, sovereign nations. Both leaders agreed to work together for mutual benefit and to meet in the near future.

This meeting comes at a pivotal time, as Carney's government navigates a minority mandate and ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. The discussions are expected to address key issues, including tariffs on Canadian exports and broader economic cooperation.

Carney's victory speech highlighted his commitment to uniting a divided Canada and fostering stronger ties with international partners. The upcoming meeting with Trump will likely set the tone for future Canada-U.S. relations.

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