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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...

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Carney and Trump Set to Meet Amid Renewed Diplomatic Focus

 

Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump are preparing for their first in-person meeting following a phone call on Tuesday. The conversation, which came shortly after Carney's election victory, emphasized the importance of Canada and the United States collaborating as independent, sovereign nations. Both leaders agreed to work together for mutual benefit and to meet in the near future.

This meeting comes at a pivotal time, as Carney's government navigates a minority mandate and ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. The discussions are expected to address key issues, including tariffs on Canadian exports and broader economic cooperation.

Carney's victory speech highlighted his commitment to uniting a divided Canada and fostering stronger ties with international partners. The upcoming meeting with Trump will likely set the tone for future Canada-U.S. relations.

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