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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Carney and Trump Set to Meet Amid Renewed Diplomatic Focus

 

Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump are preparing for their first in-person meeting following a phone call on Tuesday. The conversation, which came shortly after Carney's election victory, emphasized the importance of Canada and the United States collaborating as independent, sovereign nations. Both leaders agreed to work together for mutual benefit and to meet in the near future.

This meeting comes at a pivotal time, as Carney's government navigates a minority mandate and ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. The discussions are expected to address key issues, including tariffs on Canadian exports and broader economic cooperation.

Carney's victory speech highlighted his commitment to uniting a divided Canada and fostering stronger ties with international partners. The upcoming meeting with Trump will likely set the tone for future Canada-U.S. relations.

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