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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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China's Defiance: A Trade War Escalates


China has vowed to "fight to the end" in response to former President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing trade war between the world's two largest economies. Trump's proposed additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports has been met with strong resistance from Beijing, which has labeled the move as "unilateral bullying" and a "mistake on top of a mistake".

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has emphasized its commitment to safeguarding the nation's sovereignty and economic interests, hinting at further countermeasures. Meanwhile, the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could reach a staggering 104% if implemented, raising concerns about global economic stability.

As tensions rise, stock markets worldwide have shown increased volatility, reflecting fears of a prolonged trade war. Both nations appear steadfast in their positions, with China signaling its readiness to retaliate and Trump warning of the termination of all talks with Beijing. The outcome of this confrontation remains uncertain, but its implications for international trade and economic growth are profound.

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