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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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China's Defiance: A Trade War Escalates


China has vowed to "fight to the end" in response to former President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing trade war between the world's two largest economies. Trump's proposed additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports has been met with strong resistance from Beijing, which has labeled the move as "unilateral bullying" and a "mistake on top of a mistake".

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has emphasized its commitment to safeguarding the nation's sovereignty and economic interests, hinting at further countermeasures. Meanwhile, the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could reach a staggering 104% if implemented, raising concerns about global economic stability.

As tensions rise, stock markets worldwide have shown increased volatility, reflecting fears of a prolonged trade war. Both nations appear steadfast in their positions, with China signaling its readiness to retaliate and Trump warning of the termination of all talks with Beijing. The outcome of this confrontation remains uncertain, but its implications for international trade and economic growth are profound.

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