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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Pierre Poilievre Faces Defeat in Ottawa-Area Riding Amid Federal Election Shake-Up

 

In a surprising turn of events during Canada's 2025 federal election, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is projected to lose his long-held seat in the Carleton riding. With two polls yet to report, Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy has taken the lead, marking a significant shift in the political landscape.

Poilievre, who has represented the Ottawa-area riding since 2004, faced a strong challenge from Fanjoy, whose campaign emphasized affordable housing and cost-of-living solutions. This defeat comes as a personal blow to Poilievre, who had previously secured the riding with a comfortable margin in past elections.

The broader election results indicate a Liberal victory nationwide, with Mark Carney poised to lead the government. While the Conservatives have made gains in other areas, Poilievre's loss underscores the unpredictable nature of this election.


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