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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Trade War Escalates: China Strikes Back at U.S. Tariffs

China has retaliated against U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to increase tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, raising its own tariffs on American imports to 125%. This tit-for-tat escalation has intensified the trade war between the world's two largest economies, sending shockwaves through global markets.

The turmoil has left foreign leaders grappling with the disruption to international trade and supply chains. Stocks have plummeted, the dollar has weakened, and U.S. government bonds have faced a sell-off. Gold, often seen as a safe haven during economic uncertainty, has reached record highs.

While Trump expressed hope for a deal with China, the uncertainty has fueled fears of a global recession. China's Finance Ministry has condemned the U.S. tariffs as "unilateral bullying and coercion," signaling that Beijing is prepared to fight to the end.

The escalating trade conflict underscores the fragility of the global economy and the challenges of navigating such high-stakes negotiations. What do you think about this unfolding drama?

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