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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...

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Trump's Tariff Gamble: Boom or Bust?

In a bold move, former President Donald Trump has predicted that his sweeping global tariffs will lead to an economic boom for the United States. The tariffs, which impose significant taxes on imports from various countries, are aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing and creating jobs. Trump has emphasized that these measures will "bring back manufacturing jobs" and "restore America's economic glory."

However, the immediate reaction from global markets tells a different story. Financial markets worldwide have experienced sharp declines, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping significantly. Economists warn that the tariffs could lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth, potentially offsetting any benefits from increased domestic production.

While Trump remains optimistic about the long-term impact of his policies, critics argue that the tariffs could strain international relations and disrupt global supply chains. The coming months will reveal whether Trump's vision of economic prosperity will materialize or if the tariffs will trigger a recession instead.

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