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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Carney and Trump: A Critical Trade Discussion Amid Optimis

 

As former Bank of England governor Mark Carney prepares to meet with former U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss trade relations, experts are cautiously optimistic about potential progress. While previous U.S.-Canada trade negotiations have had their challenges, Carney’s extensive economic expertise and diplomatic approach may open new doors.  

Economists suggest that a renewed focus on balanced trade policies could benefit both nations, particularly in sectors like energy, technology, and manufacturing. Whether Carney can successfully navigate Trump’s unpredictable approach to deal-making remains to be seen. However, early indications suggest the conversation could bring some much-needed clarity to North American trade relations.  



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