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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Ford Pushes for Highway 401 Tunnel in Letter to Carney

 

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has formally requested federal support for a proposed tunnel under Highway 401, a project he describes as nation-building and essential for economic growth. In a letter sent to Prime Minister Mark Carney, Ford outlined several priority projects, including critical mineral access, electric vehicle supply chain development, and bail reforms. However, the most ambitious proposal is the tunnel, which Ford argues would significantly reduce congestion on North America's busiest highway.

The Ford government is currently seeking proposals for a feasibility study to explore various options, including an elevated highway and truck-only lanes. Despite skepticism from opposition leaders, Ford remains committed to the tunnel project, emphasizing its long-term benefits for Ontario's infrastructure and economy.

Critics, including NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, have dismissed the tunnel as unrealistic and financially burdensome. Stiles called it a "fantasy tunnel," while Crombie warned that its cost could bankrupt the province. Nevertheless, Ford has pledged to move forward with the project, regardless of feasibility study outcomes.

The federal government's response to Ford's request remains uncertain, but the proposal has already sparked significant debate about Ontario's infrastructure priorities and the future of transportation in the province.

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