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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...

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Market Optimism: U.S. Stock Futures Climb Amid China Trade Talks and Fed Decision

U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Wednesday as investors reacted positively to news of upcoming trade discussions between the U.S. and China. Washington announced that representatives from both nations would meet in Switzerland over the weekend, marking a potential step toward de-escalating trade tensions that have rattled global markets.

The Federal Reserve is also in focus, with its policy decision expected later in the day. While the central bank is widely anticipated to hold interest rates steady, traders are closely watching for signals on future monetary policy moves. Market participants are pricing in a possible rate cut by July, following mixed economic data that suggests slowing growth alongside a resilient labor market.

At 07:05 a.m. ET, S&P 500 E-minis were up 0.66%, Nasdaq 100 E-minis gained 0.67%, and Dow E-minis rose 0.73%. Investors are also keeping an eye on corporate earnings, with companies like Walt Disney and Uber Technologies reporting results that could influence market sentiment.

As Wall Street navigates uncertainty, the combination of trade negotiations and Federal Reserve guidance will likely shape market movements in the coming days. Traders remain cautiously optimistic, hoping for clarity on both fronts.

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