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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Market Watch: U.S. Stock Futures Hold Steady Amid Trade Talks

U.S. stock index futures remained subdued on Friday following a strong rally in the previous session. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming trade discussions between U.S. and Chinese representatives in Switzerland, which could shape market sentiment heading into next week.

The recent rally was fueled by a new trade agreement between the United States and Britain, sparking optimism that similar deals could ease global trade tensions. However, analysts caution that the limited scope of the agreement raises questions about its broader impact.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged heightened risks of inflation and unemployment, leaving markets in a wait-and-watch mode. At 5:36 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 48 points (0.12%), while S&P 500 E-minis and Nasdaq 100 E-minis showed slight gains.

Investors will also be keeping an eye on corporate earnings, with notable movements in stocks such as Trade Desk, Pinterest, and Expedia in premarket trading. The outcome of the U.S.-China talks could set the tone for next week's market direction.


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