Canadian Banks Brace for Economic Slowdown and Loan Losses

Canada’s major banks reported mixed results for the fourth quarter of 2021, but they all shared a common concern: the rising level of bad loans and the prospect of a shaky economy in 2022.

The six largest banks in Canada collectively set aside nearly C$4 billion ($3.0 billion) for credit losses in the quarter, the highest since the pandemic era. This reflects their expectation of more defaults and delinquencies in the coming months, especially in sectors such as residential mortgages, real estate and construction.

The banks also cited the possibility of the Bank of Canada (BOC) lowering interest rates next year, which could help consumers with mortgages at the time of renewal and help banks recover from a period of uncertainty. However, lower rates also mean lower margins and profitability for the banks.

Among the six banks, Royal Bank of Canada, CIBC and National Bank beat analysts’ estimates for adjusted earnings, while TD, Scotiabank and BMO missed. The banks also reported higher expenses as they cut nearly 10,000 jobs globally, resulting in one-time severance costs along with other tech investments and stock-based compensation.

The CEOs of the banks expressed caution about the economic outlook, citing signs of a slowing labour market, trade tensions, geopolitical risks and environmental challenges. They also said they were focusing on cost savings, efficiency and innovation to adapt to the changing environment and customer needs