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Sept 15 Tariff Shift: What's Actually Changing on Canadian Goods (And What Isn't)

  Published September 12, 2026 At 12:01 a.m. ET on Tuesday, September 15, a new round of U.S. tariff changes takes effect on Canadian goods. If you've seen headlines calling this a "new 50% tariff on Canadian steel, aluminum and paper," here's the more accurate story: it isn't a new tariff at all. It's the U.S. reshuffling which products fall under a 50% tariff that's already been in place since August 22 — adding some categories, removing others, on the same day. Here's what's actually happening, and why it matters more to Canadian manufacturers and cross-border shoppers than to your everyday grocery bill. The tariff this modifies Back on August 22, 2026, the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 on roughly $20 billion CAD of Canadian goods. The White House framed it as retaliation for Canadian "discrimination" against U.S. alcoholic beverages, dairy, and motor vehicles — three separate proclamations, eac...
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Big Bank Earnings Are In: What They Reveal About Your Mortgage Stress

 

August 26, 2026

Canada's biggest banks are in the middle of reporting Q3 2026 results, and so far the headline numbers look strong. BMO and Scotiabank both beat analyst estimates this week, and National Bank of Canada reported this morning. RBC, TD, and CIBC follow Thursday, closing out the sector's earnings season.

But the number that actually matters to most Canadians isn't profit — it's what the banks are setting aside for loans that might go bad, and what they're saying about who's struggling to keep up. That's where the picture gets more interesting than the headlines suggest.

The headline numbers

BMO kicked off the week with adjusted profit up 22% year-over-year and return on equity climbing to 14%, with the bank reiterating its target of 15% ROE by the end of fiscal 2027. Scotiabank posted what CEO Scott Thomson called a record quarter: net income of $3 billion, up 21% year-over-year, with adjusted ROE hitting 14.2% — clearing the bank's own medium-term target for the first time this cycle.

Both banks beat on earnings per share and revenue. On the surface, that's a good news story for the sector.

BankQ3 Provision for Credit Lossesvs. Q3 2025Adjusted ROE
BMO$722 millionDown from $797M~14%
Scotiabank$1.08 billionUp from $1.04B14.2%

Figures from company Q3 2026 earnings releases and reporting via Canadian Mortgage Professional and 24/7 Wall St.

The part that matters for your mortgage

Provisions for credit losses (PCLs) are the money banks set aside because they expect some borrowers won't pay them back. BMO's PCLs actually fell year-over-year, and the bank's year-to-date provisions are down to $2.2 billion from $2.86 billion in 2025 — a genuinely encouraging sign that the worst of the mortgage-renewal shock may be behind it.

Scotiabank's went the other way: PCLs rose slightly to $1.08 billion from $1.04 billion a year ago, and gross impaired loans increased to $7.80 billion from $7.61 billion the previous quarter. On the bank's earnings call, Canadian Banking leadership was direct about where the pressure is concentrated: mortgage delinquencies remain elevated in some areas, even though the bank's overall retail portfolio — with an average FICO score of 798 — remains strong.

What it means for you

If you're renewing a mortgage in the next 12 months, this is worth paying attention to. BMO disclosed that 22% of its mortgage balances are renewing in that window, with an average uninsured loan-to-value ratio of 64% — and management noted that nearly half of mortgages that renewed this quarter actually saw a payment decrease. That's a meaningfully different story than the renewal-shock headlines of the past two years, and it reflects lower rates working their way through the system. If your renewal is coming up, it's worth asking your lender or broker for a rate comparison now rather than assuming you're facing another payment jump.

Why the two banks tell different stories

BMO and Scotiabank aren't contradicting each other so much as reflecting different exposures. Analysts had flagged ahead of this earnings season that the mortgage renewal cliff — the wave of Canadians renewing loans originated at 2020-2021 ultra-low rates — peaked in 2025, with pressure expected to ease through the back half of 2026. BMO's numbers are consistent with that easing. Scotiabank's modest PCL increase suggests the easing isn't uniform: some regions and some borrower segments are still working through stress that built up over the past two years.

Neither bank is describing a crisis. Both stressed strong capital positions — Scotiabank's CET1 ratio sits at 13.1%, BMO's at 13.0%, both comfortably within regulatory comfort zones — and both continued share buybacks and dividend payments, which isn't something banks do when they're bracing for trouble.

What to watch Thursday

RBC, TD, and CIBC report Thursday, and together with National Bank's results today, they'll round out the full picture. RBC and TD in particular carry the largest Canadian mortgage books of the Big Six, so their PCL trends and delinquency commentary will matter more for the renewal-stress question than BMO or Scotiabank's numbers alone. Ontario landlords and homeowners with upcoming renewals should watch for whether TD and RBC echo BMO's easing signal or Scotiabank's more cautious tone.

We'll have Thursday's results in the next Canadian Money Brief update, along with what the full Big Six picture means for mortgage and HELOC rates heading into the Bank of Canada's September 2 decision.

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