Markets Today: Oil Tops $87 as Hormuz Doubts Grow, TSX Hits Fresh Record Ahead of Wednesday's Inflation Test

 

Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Canada's main stock index closed at yet another record high on Monday, even as oil prices jumped 5% on fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Wall Street slipped modestly from Friday's records, gold pushed to a two-month high, and everyone's now watching the calendar: Wednesday brings the July U.S. inflation report, the data point that could decide whether the Federal Reserve hikes rates next month.

🇨🇦 Canada: TSX Notches Another Record

The S&P/TSX Composite added 77.10 points, or 0.2%, to close Monday at 36,458.33 — a fresh all-time high, and the third record close in four sessions. Energy stocks led the way, jumping 3.7% as crude prices spiked, while technology added 1.1%. The gains were tempered by a rough day for Barrick Mining, which fell 6.45% after second-quarter profit and revenue came in below estimates (the company also struck a US$1.95-billion deal with Newmont to settle a long-running dispute over their shared Nevada Gold Mines operation). Financials lagged too, as last week's blowout Canadian jobs report keeps alive the possibility the Bank of Canada could turn more hawkish if energy-driven inflation sticks around.

Index	Close	Change
S&P/TSX Composite	36,458.33	+77.10 (+0.2%)

🇺🇸 US Markets: A Quiet Pullback From Record Highs

Major U.S. indexes eased back from Friday's record closes as rising oil prices revived some inflation worries. The Dow Jones fell 60.95 points (0.11%) to 53,975.98, the S&P 500 dipped 4.53 points (0.06%) to 7,753.11, and the Nasdaq lost 85.26 points (0.32%) to 26,605.36. Intel dropped more than 4% after announcing a US$15-billion stock offering, while chip stocks broadly weighed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed 6 basis points to 4.71% — its highest level this month — as bond markets priced in a bit more inflation risk ahead of Wednesday's report.

Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones Industrial Average	53,975.98	−60.95 (−0.11%)
S&P 500	7,753.11	−4.53 (−0.06%)
Nasdaq Composite	26,605.36	−85.26 (−0.32%)

🇪🇺 Europe: Holding Near Record Territory

European benchmarks were largely directionless on Monday, staying close to record highs but pausing as investors weighed the same Hormuz uncertainty rattling energy markets elsewhere. Germany's DAX inched up 0.02% to 26,323.88, France's CAC 40 added 0.13% to 8,726.03, while London's FTSE 100 slipped 0.35% to 10,862.50. The pan-European Stoxx 600 remained just shy of its all-time high after last week's strongest weekly advance since late June.

Index	Close	Change
Germany DAX	26,323.88	+0.02%
France CAC 40	8,726.03	+0.13%
UK FTSE 100	10,862.50	−0.35%

🌏 Asia-Pacific: Mixed, With Japan on Holiday

Asian markets were mixed in Tuesday trading, with Japan's exchanges closed for the Mountain Day holiday. South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.73%, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 0.19%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell 1.03% and mainland China's CSI 300 slid 0.79%. With Tokyo shut, Asia-Pacific government bonds took their cue from Monday's U.S. Treasury selloff, drifting lower alongside oil-driven inflation jitters.

Index	Change
South Korea Kospi	+0.73%
Australia S&P/ASX 200	+0.19%
Hong Kong Hang Seng	−1.03%
China CSI 300	−0.79%
Japan Nikkei 225	Closed (holiday)

🛢️ Commodities: Oil Jumps, Gold Nears Two-Month High

Oil spiked about 5% on Monday as doubt grew that the U.S. and Iran will actually strike a deal to expand ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude settled at US$82.13 a barrel and Brent settled at US$87.72, with Brent holding near US$88 in Tuesday trading. Iran's Foreign Ministry said Monday that Washington must lift its naval blockade before Tehran will agree to fully reopen the waterway — a tougher line than markets had been pricing in after last week's optimism.

Gold climbed above US$4,400 an ounce on Tuesday, its highest level in two months, as Chinese institutional investors and gold-backed ETFs in China kept adding to bullion positions. China's central bank also stepped up its own gold purchases in July, adding roughly 20 tonnes to reserves — the largest monthly increase since October 2023 — as a hedge against volatility elsewhere in markets.

Commodity	Price
WTI Crude	~US$82/barrel
Brent Crude	~US$88/barrel
Gold	Above US$4,400/oz

💱 Currency Corner: The Loonie Holds Its Ground

The Canadian dollar is trading around 71.77 cents US (USD/CAD ~1.3934) on Tuesday, holding close to Friday's eight-week high. Last week's blowout Canadian jobs report — 75,100 net new jobs versus the roughly 15,000 expected — narrowed the yield gap between Canada and the U.S. and has kept the loonie firmer even as oil-driven volatility whips through other markets.

💡 What It Means for You

• At the pump: Oil's 5% jump could nudge gas prices back up over the next week or two — worth filling up sooner rather than later if you're due.
• RRSP/TFSA holders: The TSX's fresh record means Canadian equity holdings keep climbing, but Wednesday's U.S. CPI print could shake things up quickly in either direction — this isn't the week to check your balance and panic either way.
• Cross-border shoppers and travellers: A steadier loonie near 71.8 cents US is modestly better news for anyone buying in U.S. dollars than the ~70-cent lows seen earlier this summer.
• Mortgage watchers: Rising bond yields (that 10-year Treasury move) tend to filter into fixed mortgage rates before variable ones — if you're renewing soon, it's worth locking in a quote now rather than waiting.

📅 What to Watch This Week

• Wednesday, Aug. 12: U.S. July CPI — economists expect headline inflation of about 0.1% month-over-month (3.4% year-over-year) and core CPI of about 0.2% (2.5% year-over-year). This is the big one for Fed rate-hike odds.
• Thursday, Aug. 13: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) — another read on pipeline inflation pressure.
• Friday, Aug. 14: U.S. retail sales.
• Aug. 19 (8 days away): The deadline for the new U.S. 50% tariff on select Canadian goods — wine, dairy, furniture, hockey gear — with talks in Washington still ongoing.
• Sept. 2: The Bank of Canada's next rate decision, which last week's strong jobs data has made a live question again.

Market data as of close Monday, August 10, 2026, and Tuesday morning trading, August 11, 2026. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.