Four trading days, three straight TSX losses, a $27.6-billion tariff package, and oil's first trip above $100/barrel since spring. Markets clawed back some ground Friday, but it was a rough week for Canadian portfolios. Here's what actually happened, and what's coming next.
The week in one line: Escalating US-Iran conflict sent oil above $100/bbl, Canada's retaliation tariffs took effect Sept 8, and a four-day Wall Street losing streak snapped Friday on in-line US inflation data.
🇨🇦 Canada: TSX
The S&P/TSX Composite fell in three of four sessions this week before a Friday bounce, ending down 2.2% from last Friday's close.
| Date | Close | Change |
|---|
| Fri, Sept 4 (prior close) | 36,513.80 | — |
| Tue, Sept 8 | 36,123.05 | -1.07% |
| Wed, Sept 9 | 35,907.00 | -0.60% |
| Thu, Sept 10 | 35,506.28 | -1.11% |
| Fri, Sept 11 | 35,697.49 | +0.54% |
The Friday relief rally came as oil prices eased on hopes for Gulf diplomacy and August's US inflation print landed close to forecasts, letting Canadian banks (TD, BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC all up roughly 1%) and gold miners lead the bounce.
🇺🇸 United States
Wall Street's four-session losing streak ended Friday after August CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year, in line with expectations, even as core inflation ran slightly hot at 0.3% month-over-month.
| Index | Fri Sept 11 Close | Week |
|---|
| Dow Jones | 52,573.29 | -1.6% |
| S&P 500 | 7,656.98 | -0.8% |
| Nasdaq | 26,333.04 | -0.7% |
All three indices gained roughly 1% on Friday alone, but still finished the week lower as a hot Thursday producer-price report and a four-day bond selloff (the 10-year yield briefly approached 5%) kept pressure on equities ahead of next week's Fed decision. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% chance of a Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.
🇬🇧🇪🇺 Europe
| Index | Week |
|---|
| FTSE 100 (UK) | -1.67% |
| DAX (Germany) | -1.83% |
| CAC 40 (France) | -1.20% |
European equities came under pressure all week as the US-Iran conflict pushed oil and natural gas prices higher, stoking inflation worries and pushing bond yields up. The European Central Bank raised its key rate 25 basis points to 2.50% on Thursday, its second hike this cycle, while flagging upside inflation risks.
🌏 Asia-Pacific
| Index | Week |
|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | -3.6% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | ~-3.3% |
| Kospi (South Korea) | Broke below 7,000 |
Asian markets sold off broadly Friday as hot US inflation data cemented Fed rate-hike bets. South Korea's Kospi briefly broke below the psychologically important 7,000 level for the first time in months, while Japan's Nikkei fell as much as 3.2% intraday on semiconductor and AI-stock weakness before paring losses.
🛢️ Commodities & the Loonie
| Asset | Fri Sept 11 | Week |
|---|
| WTI Crude | ~$100.05 | +~10% |
| Brent Crude | ~$104.60 | +~9% |
| Gold (USD/oz) | $4,362.40 | -~4% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3862 | Loonie softened |
Oil was the week's big story: WTI and Brent both surged more than 20% intra-week at their peaks before easing Friday, driven by Houthi strikes on Saudi energy facilities and direct US-Iran military escalation near the Strait of Hormuz. That matters directly for Canadian household budgets — CAA's national average gas price climbed to roughly 177-180 cents/litre this week, even with Ottawa's gas tax holiday (extended to January 31, 2027) still in effect.
💡 What It Means for You
- At the pump: higher oil is pushing gas prices up despite the tax holiday — budget for continued pressure if the Middle East conflict escalates further.
- On your mortgage/HELOC: bond yields near multi-year highs are keeping fixed mortgage rates elevated, and a Fed hike next week plus rising odds of a Bank of Canada hike later this year both point toward higher-for-longer borrowing costs.
- At the checkout: Canada's $27.6-billion retaliation tariffs (steel, aluminum, appliances, dairy, and more) took effect Sept 8 — expect gradual price increases on affected goods over the coming weeks.
🏦 Bank of Canada Context
The BoC held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2 (its 7th-8th consecutive hold), but shifted to a notably more hawkish tone, flagging both the new tariffs and elevated oil prices as inflation risks. National Bank and Scotiabank are now forecasting a hike to 2.50% at the October 28 decision, while TD, BMO, and RBC still expect holds through 2026. Markets are currently pricing in 60%+ odds of at least one BoC hike by December.
📅 What to Watch Next Week
| Date | Event |
|---|
| Mon, Sept 14 | Canada August CPI — first inflation read since the Sept 8 tariffs took effect |
| Sept 14-15 | Canada Investment Summit (Toronto) — targeting $1 trillion in investment over 5 years |
| Sept 15 | New US 50% tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and paper goods take effect |
| Sept 15-16 | US Federal Reserve rate decision (FOMC) — hike widely expected |
| Sept 16 | US Retail Sales; UK and Canada CPI data |
| Sept 17-18 | Bank of England and Bank of Japan rate decisions |
Market data compiled from TSX/TMX, Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics, and BNN Bloomberg as of market close September 11, 2026. Figures for indices with ongoing volatility (Hang Seng, Kospi) are approximate. This is general market commentary, not investment advice.
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