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Canada’s Inflation Cools to 2.2% in October Amid Cheaper Gas and Groceries

  Motorists fuel up at an ONroute gas station near Maple, Ont., on April 1, 2025. Lower gas prices helped bring overall inflation down in October, Statistics Canada says. Canada’s annual inflation rate eased to 2.2% in October , down from 2.4% in September. The slowdown was largely driven by falling gasoline and grocery prices, offering some relief to consumers after months of persistent cost pressures. Key Drivers of the Decline Gasoline prices dropped 4.8% month-over-month , as retailers switched to cheaper winter fuel blends and global crude oil prices fell due to oversupply concerns. Grocery prices fell 0.6% in October , marking the largest monthly decline since September 2020. Annual grocery inflation cooled to 3.4% , down from 4% in September, with lower costs for processed foods and fresh vegetables offsetting higher prices for chicken. Excluding gasoline, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% year-over-year , showing that underlying inflationary pressures remain....
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Canada's Economy Contracts Unpredictably: Central Bank's Cautionary Outlook


 Canada’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter of 2023 at an annualized rate of 0.2% . The growth was most likely flat in July. This result will probably allow the central bank to hold rates amid a possible recession . The second-quarter reading was far lower than the Bank of Canada’s (BoC’s) forecast for a 1.5% annualized GDP growth as well as the 1.2% gain expected by analysts . The quarterly slowdown was largely due to declines in housing investment and smaller inventory accumulation as well as slower international exports and household spending. In June, Canadian wildfires adversely impacted multiple industries, including mining and quarrying and rail transportation.

The figures “leave little doubt that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged next week,” said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North American economist for Capital Economics. The central bank hiked its benchmark overnight rate to a 22-year-high of 5.0% in July, the tenth increase since March of last year. Since then, the bank has said its future moves would depend on its reading of the data, which have been mixed.

In conclusion, Canada’s economy has contracted unexpectedly in Q2 2023, and growth was most likely flat in July. This result will probably allow the central bank to hold rates amid a possible recession. The quarterly slowdown was largely due to declines in housing investment and smaller inventory accumulation as well as slower international exports and household spending. The Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week, given the recent economic data.

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