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CUSMA Not Renewed: What the Trade Deal Impasse Means for Your Wallet

  July 2, 2026 | Trade & Economy The mandatory six-year review of Canada's most important trade agreement came and went this week — and it did not go the way Ottawa hoped. On July 1, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed that the United States will not renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in its current form, sending the deal into a more uncertain, year-by-year footing right as Canadians are already navigating tariffs, a soft labour market, and a technical recession. Here is what actually happened, why it matters, and what it could mean for your budget in the months ahead. The short version CUSMA isn't dead. It remains legally in force until 2036. But instead of locking in a fresh 16-year term, the deal now shifts into annual reviews, with existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and softwood lumber unresolved for now. What happened on July 1 CUSMA was built with a mandatory joint review every six years. If Canada, the U.S. and Mexico had a...
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Canada's Economy: Canadian dollar drops to six-day low amid U.S. inflation fears

                                                


The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level in six days on Wednesday, as investors were rattled by higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data that raised the prospect of tighter monetary policy south of the border.

The loonie traded at 79.32 U.S. cents, down 0.6% from Tuesday's close, after touching a low of 79.25 earlier in the session.

The U.S. consumer price index jumped 0.9% in June from May, the largest monthly increase since June 2008, and rose 5.4% on a year-over-year basis, the highest annual rate since August 2008.

The data fueled fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve may have to start tapering its bond-buying program and raising interest rates sooner than expected, which could boost the U.S. dollar and weigh on riskier currencies like the loonie.

"The market is clearly concerned that the Fed is behind the curve and will have to act more aggressively than previously anticipated," said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management.

He added that the loonie was also pressured by a decline in oil prices, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to increase output from August, easing supply concerns.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 2.3% to $74.76 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 2.8% to $73.13.

Cieszynski said the loonie could find some support from the Bank of Canada's policy decision on Wednesday, which is expected to maintain its current pace of bond purchases and keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.25%.

"The Bank of Canada has been more hawkish than the Fed, so that could provide some relief for the loonie," he said.

However, he noted that the bank may also express some caution about the outlook for the Canadian economy, given the recent surge in COVID-19 cases and the uncertainty over the reopening plans of some provinces.


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