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Markets Digest Iran Peace Progress and Fed Rate-Hike Risk — June 22, 2026

  Markets are easing into a cautious start this Monday as investors return from a long weekend — U.S. markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth — and assess a mixed backdrop: tentative optimism over U.S.–Iran peace talks, a newly hawkish Federal Reserve, and a key week of economic data and earnings ahead. Oil is steadying, the Canadian dollar is under modest pressure, and Asian markets rallied while European and U.S. futures drifted slightly lower in early trading. 🍁 Canada — TSX & the Loonie The S&P/TSX Composite Index heads into Monday trading with a cautious tone, sitting near the 34,857 level after slipping 0.32% on Thursday — the last day Canadian markets were open. Energy stocks will be in focus as oil prices stabilize following weeks of volatility tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Canadian dollar is trading at approximately 70.52 cents U.S. (CAD/USD: 0.7052), down about 0.22% on the session. The loonie remains und...
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US stocks hope for economic stability after record highs

 


The US stock market has been on a roll this year, with the S&P 500 index up by 17% and hovering around 6% below its record high from January 2022. The market’s performance in the coming weeks will depend on how confident investors are that the US economy will experience a soft landing..

A soft landing is a scenario where the economy slows down moderately without going into a recession . Morgan Stanley Research believes that the US economy can achieve a soft landing, given the current housing cycle, income and spending trends, a stable labor market, and receding inflation. However, banking-sector turmoil and a resulting credit squeeze still pose some recession risk.

The recent stock market rally has Wall Street re-examining the potential for the US economy to pull off a soft landing scenario. Goldman Sachs expects the economy to react positively to the Fed’s monetary policy in 2024.

It’s worth noting that the stock market is not always a reliable indicator of the economy’s health. Therefore, investors should be cautious and not celebrate too soon.



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