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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Tehran Signals Defiance as Supreme Leader Vows Retaliation and Strait Closure

 

A man holds a picture of Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, while people attend a funeral ceremony for the Iranian military commanders who were killed in strikes, in Tehran


Iran’s Supreme Leader issued his first public remarks following the deaths of senior Iranian commanders, vowing that the country will “avenge the martyrs” and maintain the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz until what he described as “justice” is served. His comments, delivered during a nationally broadcast address, underscore a sharp escalation in rhetoric at a moment of heightened regional tension.

The Supreme Leader framed the recent losses as sacrifices in the defense of Iran’s sovereignty, promising that those responsible “will face consequences.” He also reaffirmed Iran’s decision to keep the Strait closed, a move that has already disrupted global shipping routes and rattled energy markets. The strait, one of the world’s most critical chokepoints for oil transport, has long been a flashpoint in Iran’s standoffs with Western powers.

Regional analysts note that the remarks signal Tehran’s intent to leverage both symbolic and strategic pressure. While international leaders have urged de-escalation, Iran’s leadership appears determined to project strength and resolve.

The coming days are likely to test diplomatic channels as global powers weigh responses to both the vow of retaliation and the continued disruption of maritime traffic.



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