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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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US Futures Recover as Tech Sector Leads the Way

 

US stock futures are pointing to a rebound from recent losses, with investors looking to fresh quarterly earnings for inspiration amid dwindling hopes for an early 2024 interest rate cut. S&P 500 futures added around 0.4%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 jumped 0.7%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures hugged the flatline. 

Techs are in the vanguard after a bullish AI-fueled revenue outlook from TSMC, a key supplier to Apple and Nvidia. The Taiwanese contract chipmaker’s profit fell but beat Wall Street estimates. Shares of AMD and other chipmakers stepped higher in premarket as TSMC put on almost 7%. 

Stocks are still struggling to get off the ground this year as central bankers’ comments and mixed economic data put investors’ faith in a Federal Reserve pivot to the test. The odds of a rate cut in March as seen by traders have dropped 10 percentage points from a week ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool (Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group).

Investors are on the lookout for fresh data to feed their expectations, so Thursday’s release of readings on weekly jobless claims will be in focus. Housing starts and building permits for December are also on the docket. Eyes will also be on Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, scheduled to appear twice today and closely watched for any deviation from his colleagues’ pushback on rate-cut bets.


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