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The Fed Decides Wednesday — Here's What It Means for Your Mortgage, the Loonie, and Your RRSP

  Monday, July 27, 2026 The U.S. Federal Reserve hands down its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on July 29. For most Canadians it will feel like background noise. It isn't — here's the plain-language version of why it touches your mortgage, your cross-border spending, and whatever's sitting in your RRSP. The short version: Markets are pricing roughly a two-in-three chance the Fed holds its rate at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. That's not the story. The story is that this is one of the least certain "sure thing" holds in years — and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET could matter more than the decision itself. Why this meeting is different The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% through every meeting so far in 2026. On paper, Wednesday should be more of the same. Under the hood, it's messier. Persistent inflation, running well above the Fed's 2% target for a fifth straight year, has kept a rate hike on the table. The oil-...
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US Futures Recover as Tech Sector Leads the Way

 

US stock futures are pointing to a rebound from recent losses, with investors looking to fresh quarterly earnings for inspiration amid dwindling hopes for an early 2024 interest rate cut. S&P 500 futures added around 0.4%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 jumped 0.7%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures hugged the flatline. 

Techs are in the vanguard after a bullish AI-fueled revenue outlook from TSMC, a key supplier to Apple and Nvidia. The Taiwanese contract chipmaker’s profit fell but beat Wall Street estimates. Shares of AMD and other chipmakers stepped higher in premarket as TSMC put on almost 7%. 

Stocks are still struggling to get off the ground this year as central bankers’ comments and mixed economic data put investors’ faith in a Federal Reserve pivot to the test. The odds of a rate cut in March as seen by traders have dropped 10 percentage points from a week ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool (Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group).

Investors are on the lookout for fresh data to feed their expectations, so Thursday’s release of readings on weekly jobless claims will be in focus. Housing starts and building permits for December are also on the docket. Eyes will also be on Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, scheduled to appear twice today and closely watched for any deviation from his colleagues’ pushback on rate-cut bets.


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