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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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US Futures Recover as Tech Sector Leads the Way

 

US stock futures are pointing to a rebound from recent losses, with investors looking to fresh quarterly earnings for inspiration amid dwindling hopes for an early 2024 interest rate cut. S&P 500 futures added around 0.4%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 jumped 0.7%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures hugged the flatline. 

Techs are in the vanguard after a bullish AI-fueled revenue outlook from TSMC, a key supplier to Apple and Nvidia. The Taiwanese contract chipmaker’s profit fell but beat Wall Street estimates. Shares of AMD and other chipmakers stepped higher in premarket as TSMC put on almost 7%. 

Stocks are still struggling to get off the ground this year as central bankers’ comments and mixed economic data put investors’ faith in a Federal Reserve pivot to the test. The odds of a rate cut in March as seen by traders have dropped 10 percentage points from a week ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool (Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group).

Investors are on the lookout for fresh data to feed their expectations, so Thursday’s release of readings on weekly jobless claims will be in focus. Housing starts and building permits for December are also on the docket. Eyes will also be on Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, scheduled to appear twice today and closely watched for any deviation from his colleagues’ pushback on rate-cut bets.


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