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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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US Stock Futures Retreat as Tech Stocks Lose Steam


US stock futures inched lower on Tuesday as the previous day’s tech rally lost steam after a Samsung profit warning took the shine off the sector. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4% and roughly 0.6%, respectively, after both indexes closed with their best single-day gains since November. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.4%.

Samsung’s update weighed on hopes for a rebound in the PC and mobile sector, a key market for its memory chips. The Korean company said it expects a 35% drop in fourth-quarter operating income, far short of estimates, as demand continues to lag.

Investors are currently focused on the December consumer inflation reading due Thursday and what it could mean for the chances of an easing in interest rates. But two Federal Reserve officials on Monday poured cold water on Wall Street’s already fading expectations that a cut could come in the next few months.

Meanwhile, oil prices rose over 2%, recouping some of Monday’s near 4% fall as investors weighed the impact of tensions in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut crude prices.


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