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Macklem Just Raised the Inflation Alarm: What Monday’s CPI Means for Your Wallet

  Canadian Money Brief  |  Sunday, October 18, 2026  |  Written ahead of Monday’s 8:30 am ET inflation release Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has just told Canadians what the central bank is about to say on October 28: its inflation forecast is going up, and by a lot. The reason is oil. With the Middle East conflict dragging on, shipments still curtailed and refinery capacity damaged, he said the risk that inflation broadens and lingers has gone up. Speaking to reporters from Bangkok on Saturday, he framed the coming decision as a simple question: will inflation drift back toward 2% on its own, or does the Bank need to raise rates to nudge it there? Monday is the first real clue. Here is what is landing, what economists expect, and what it could mean for your gas bill, your grocery cart, your heating costs and your mortgage. 3.0% August CPI, year over year 3.2% September consensus (Reuters poll) 2.25% BoC policy rate, unchanged for nearly a year Oct 28 Rat...
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US stocks rebound from inflation shock as investors eye Fed comments, earnings



US stock futures rose on Wednesday, looking to recover from a sharp selloff triggered by hotter-than-expected inflation data that dashed hopes for interest-rate cuts before the summer.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI) futures added 0.2%, signaling a bounce back for the blue-chip index from a 500-point drop and its worst day since March 2022. Futures on the S&P 500 ( ^GSPC) put on roughly 0.4%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 ( ^NDX) jumped 0.5% — also on the heels of steep declines.

Investors were gripped by the wild fallout from a typo in Lyft’s ( LYFT) financial update late Tuesday. Shares in the ride-hailing company initially rocketed 67%, but the rally lost steam after Lyft corrected an error in its statement that boosted its profit outlook. The stock remained up a more modest 20% in premarket trading.

A new wave of earnings reports also could deliver some impetus, with Cisco ( CSCO ), Kraft Heinz ( KHC ), and Warren Buffett-linked Occidental ( OXY) among the big hitters on the list.

Comments by Fed officials Austan Goolsbee and Michael Barr in their appearances later in the day could provide more grist for the ever-present debate on rate timing.

Investors are coming to grips with the prospect of the Federal Reserve holding fire on rate cuts until later in the year — and a potential “no landing” scenario for the US economy.

The latest inflation reading showed consumer prices rose more than expected in January, increasing the odds of a “no landing” outcome, which would be a failed attempt of the Fed to quell inflation but, ultimately, would not result in a recession.

Bets on a March interest rate cut are now all but gone. Pricing on the CME FedWatch Tool now places a 39% chance the Fed cuts in May, down from a 67% chance just a week ago.

“In our view, a March cut is now firmly off the table and the chances of a May cut have significantly reduced. But we remain comfortable with our call for rate cuts to begin in June,” Bank of America US economist Stephen Juneau wrote in a research note on Tuesday.

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