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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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US stocks rebound from inflation shock as investors eye Fed comments, earnings



US stock futures rose on Wednesday, looking to recover from a sharp selloff triggered by hotter-than-expected inflation data that dashed hopes for interest-rate cuts before the summer.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI) futures added 0.2%, signaling a bounce back for the blue-chip index from a 500-point drop and its worst day since March 2022. Futures on the S&P 500 ( ^GSPC) put on roughly 0.4%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 ( ^NDX) jumped 0.5% — also on the heels of steep declines.

Investors were gripped by the wild fallout from a typo in Lyft’s ( LYFT) financial update late Tuesday. Shares in the ride-hailing company initially rocketed 67%, but the rally lost steam after Lyft corrected an error in its statement that boosted its profit outlook. The stock remained up a more modest 20% in premarket trading.

A new wave of earnings reports also could deliver some impetus, with Cisco ( CSCO ), Kraft Heinz ( KHC ), and Warren Buffett-linked Occidental ( OXY) among the big hitters on the list.

Comments by Fed officials Austan Goolsbee and Michael Barr in their appearances later in the day could provide more grist for the ever-present debate on rate timing.

Investors are coming to grips with the prospect of the Federal Reserve holding fire on rate cuts until later in the year — and a potential “no landing” scenario for the US economy.

The latest inflation reading showed consumer prices rose more than expected in January, increasing the odds of a “no landing” outcome, which would be a failed attempt of the Fed to quell inflation but, ultimately, would not result in a recession.

Bets on a March interest rate cut are now all but gone. Pricing on the CME FedWatch Tool now places a 39% chance the Fed cuts in May, down from a 67% chance just a week ago.

“In our view, a March cut is now firmly off the table and the chances of a May cut have significantly reduced. But we remain comfortable with our call for rate cuts to begin in June,” Bank of America US economist Stephen Juneau wrote in a research note on Tuesday.

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