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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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US Futures Rise as Inflation Cools Unexpectedly

                                            

US stock futures are on the rise today after a key report on consumer inflation surprised investors. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.1% over the previous month, marking the first month-over-month decrease since 2020. Additionally, the annual gain in consumer prices was the slowest rise since early 2021, coming in at just 3.0% over the prior year in June.

Here are the highlights:

  • S&P 500 Futures: The broad index crossed 5,600 for the first time on Wednesday, and futures rose by 0.2% today.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures: These rose roughly 0.1%.
  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also gained around 0.2%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments have fueled expectations of interest-rate cuts, and today’s inflation data further bolstered bets on a cut by September. Approximately 87% of traders now expect such an outcome, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

In corporate news, Costco shares rose in pre-market trading after announcing its first membership fee hike since 2017. This move is seen as reflecting price pressures on consumers. Meanwhile, PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines reported earnings, setting the stage for big bank earnings in the second quarter.

Stay tuned for more updates as the market continues to react to economic data and corporate earnings.


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