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Bank of Canada Rate Decision Countdown: What to Expect on July 15

  Published July 4, 2026 In eleven days, the Bank of Canada will make its fifth interest rate call of 2026. If you've got a mortgage renewing, a variable rate that moves with the Bank's decisions, or savings sitting in a high-interest account, this is the date to have circled. Here's where things stand heading into July 15, and what the smart money is expecting. Where the rate sits right now The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since its last two decisions, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The July 15 announcement, released at 9:45 a.m. ET, will also come with a full Monetary Policy Report, since the Bank publishes its detailed economic projections quarterly alongside the January, April, July, and October decisions. Why most economists expect another hold The case for standing pat comes down to two forces pulling in opposite directions: Inflation is running hot, but mostly for one reason. Canada's headline inflation rate jumped...

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US Futures Rise as Inflation Cools Unexpectedly

                                            

US stock futures are on the rise today after a key report on consumer inflation surprised investors. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.1% over the previous month, marking the first month-over-month decrease since 2020. Additionally, the annual gain in consumer prices was the slowest rise since early 2021, coming in at just 3.0% over the prior year in June.

Here are the highlights:

  • S&P 500 Futures: The broad index crossed 5,600 for the first time on Wednesday, and futures rose by 0.2% today.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures: These rose roughly 0.1%.
  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also gained around 0.2%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments have fueled expectations of interest-rate cuts, and today’s inflation data further bolstered bets on a cut by September. Approximately 87% of traders now expect such an outcome, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

In corporate news, Costco shares rose in pre-market trading after announcing its first membership fee hike since 2017. This move is seen as reflecting price pressures on consumers. Meanwhile, PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines reported earnings, setting the stage for big bank earnings in the second quarter.

Stay tuned for more updates as the market continues to react to economic data and corporate earnings.


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