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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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US Futures Rise as Inflation Cools Unexpectedly

                                            

US stock futures are on the rise today after a key report on consumer inflation surprised investors. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.1% over the previous month, marking the first month-over-month decrease since 2020. Additionally, the annual gain in consumer prices was the slowest rise since early 2021, coming in at just 3.0% over the prior year in June.

Here are the highlights:

  • S&P 500 Futures: The broad index crossed 5,600 for the first time on Wednesday, and futures rose by 0.2% today.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures: These rose roughly 0.1%.
  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also gained around 0.2%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments have fueled expectations of interest-rate cuts, and today’s inflation data further bolstered bets on a cut by September. Approximately 87% of traders now expect such an outcome, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

In corporate news, Costco shares rose in pre-market trading after announcing its first membership fee hike since 2017. This move is seen as reflecting price pressures on consumers. Meanwhile, PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines reported earnings, setting the stage for big bank earnings in the second quarter.

Stay tuned for more updates as the market continues to react to economic data and corporate earnings.


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