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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Stock Futures Steady as Investors Await Fresh Jobs Data

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Thursday as Wall Street attempted to recover from recent declines. Futures tied to the S&P 500 were flat, while Nasdaq futures rose slightly. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell marginally.

Labor Market Update: Today’s spotlight is on the release of the report on initial weekly jobless claims. A positive number could reassure traders about the state of the jobs market, while a negative one may introduce more turbulence. Last week’s sluggish non-farm payrolls update was one of the catalysts for recent declines.

Individual Movers:

  • Nvidia (NVDA): The AI giant’s stock is in focus after a back-and-forth day left it down another 5%.
  • Eli Lilly (LLY): The company’s stock soared over 10% in premarket trading after boosting its annual revenue and profit forecasts on strong weight-loss drug sales.


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