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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Conservatives Leverage Singh's Critique in Non-Confidence Motion


In a strategic move, the Conservative Party plans to introduce a non-confidence motion next week, utilizing NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's own words to challenge the minority Liberal government. The motion quotes Singh's criticism of the Liberals, accusing them of succumbing to corporate greed by ordering binding arbitration in labor disputes involving the nation's largest rail yards.

The proposed motion aims to persuade New Democrats to join forces with the Conservatives, declaring a loss of confidence in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government. If successful, this motion could trigger an immediate election, a scenario the Conservatives are eager to see.

Government House Leader Karina Gould has announced plans to schedule opposition days for both the Conservatives and the NDP next week, providing a platform for this critical motion. The outcome of this political maneuver remains uncertain, as the NDP has previously taken a case-by-case approach to non-confidence votes.

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