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Trump–Powell Showdown Intensifies as White House Floats Criminal Charges

                                                       Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell A dramatic escalation in the long‑running tension between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has thrust the independence of the U.S. central bank into the spotlight. The conflict deepened after Powell disclosed that the Department of Justice had issued grand jury subpoenas to the Federal Reserve—an action he suggested was politically motivated. The inquiry centers on Powell’s congressional testimony about cost overruns tied to a Federal Reserve building renovation. Powell has dismissed the investigation as a pretext, arguing that the administration’s real aim is to pressure the Fed into cutting interest rates more aggressively, a move Trump has repeatedly demanded. The threat of potential...
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Fiscal Challenges Ahead: U.S. Bonds Face Uncertainty Under Trump’s New Term

 

As Donald Trump begins his new term as U.S. President, the fiscal landscape presents significant challenges that could impact the nation’s bond market. The prospect of rising government debt levels has already influenced investor sentiment, pushing U.S. government bond yields higher.

Trump’s trade and tax policies are expected to reignite inflation, exacerbating the fiscal strain. This scenario has led to concerns among investors, often referred to as “bond vigilantes,” who may dump government debt over worries about increasing deficits. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has already risen to 4.479% in response to these concerns.

A critical hurdle for the new administration will be the reinstatement of the federal debt ceiling on January 2, 2025. This ceiling, which was suspended in 2023, must be approved by a majority of lawmakers. Past disputes over the debt limit have brought the country close to default, affecting its credit rating.

Analysts predict volatility in the bond market around these negotiations, even if a default is avoided. Measures such as Treasury puts or credit default swaps might be used to hedge against this volatility. The Treasury Department may need to employ extraordinary measures to fund the government until the so-called X date, when it can no longer meet all its obligations.

In summary, Trump’s presidency is expected to bring fiscal challenges that could strain the U.S. bond market, with rising deficits and potential volatility as key concerns for investors.


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