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Peace Talks Falter as New Strikes Shake Ukraine

President of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan receives the heads of delegations participating in the UAE hosted trilateral talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine, Director of the Office of the President of Ukraine Kirill Budanov, United States Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Rustem Umerov, Chief of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Igor Kostyukov, and Jared Kushner at Al Shati Palace in Abu Dhabi. US‑mediated negotiations aimed at easing the war in Ukraine ended abruptly without an agreement after Russia launched a series of overnight airstrikes that hit multiple Ukrainian cities and energy facilities. The renewed bombardment intensified pressure on the talks, which had been viewed as a tentative step toward de‑escalation. Diplomats from both sides described the discussions as “constructive but inconclusive,” noting that major sticking points — in...
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Fiscal Challenges Ahead: U.S. Bonds Face Uncertainty Under Trump’s New Term

 

As Donald Trump begins his new term as U.S. President, the fiscal landscape presents significant challenges that could impact the nation’s bond market. The prospect of rising government debt levels has already influenced investor sentiment, pushing U.S. government bond yields higher.

Trump’s trade and tax policies are expected to reignite inflation, exacerbating the fiscal strain. This scenario has led to concerns among investors, often referred to as “bond vigilantes,” who may dump government debt over worries about increasing deficits. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has already risen to 4.479% in response to these concerns.

A critical hurdle for the new administration will be the reinstatement of the federal debt ceiling on January 2, 2025. This ceiling, which was suspended in 2023, must be approved by a majority of lawmakers. Past disputes over the debt limit have brought the country close to default, affecting its credit rating.

Analysts predict volatility in the bond market around these negotiations, even if a default is avoided. Measures such as Treasury puts or credit default swaps might be used to hedge against this volatility. The Treasury Department may need to employ extraordinary measures to fund the government until the so-called X date, when it can no longer meet all its obligations.

In summary, Trump’s presidency is expected to bring fiscal challenges that could strain the U.S. bond market, with rising deficits and potential volatility as key concerns for investors.


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