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Wall Street Futures Edge Higher as Soft Jobs Data Fuels Rate-Cut Hopes

  US stock futures ticked upward on Wednesday, extending Wall Street’s rebound as investors digested a weaker-than-expected ADP employment report. The data showed a surprise decline in private-sector payrolls, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may move forward with an interest rate cut at its upcoming December meeting. Market Performance Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose about 0.2%, adding 80 points to 47,624. S&P 500 futures gained 9.25 points to 6,849.50, up 0.14%. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 25.50 points to 25,631.50, a 0.10% increase. Key Drivers The ADP jobs report revealed a drop in private-sector employment, signaling cooling labor market conditions. This bolstered investor confidence that the Fed will ease monetary policy, with markets pricing in nearly 88% odds of a rate cut next week. Tech stocks continued to provide momentum, with Nvidia and Marvell edging higher. Crypto-linked stocks surged, with PMAX up 67%, CMCT up 30%, a...
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Fiscal Challenges Ahead: U.S. Bonds Face Uncertainty Under Trump’s New Term

 

As Donald Trump begins his new term as U.S. President, the fiscal landscape presents significant challenges that could impact the nation’s bond market. The prospect of rising government debt levels has already influenced investor sentiment, pushing U.S. government bond yields higher.

Trump’s trade and tax policies are expected to reignite inflation, exacerbating the fiscal strain. This scenario has led to concerns among investors, often referred to as “bond vigilantes,” who may dump government debt over worries about increasing deficits. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has already risen to 4.479% in response to these concerns.

A critical hurdle for the new administration will be the reinstatement of the federal debt ceiling on January 2, 2025. This ceiling, which was suspended in 2023, must be approved by a majority of lawmakers. Past disputes over the debt limit have brought the country close to default, affecting its credit rating.

Analysts predict volatility in the bond market around these negotiations, even if a default is avoided. Measures such as Treasury puts or credit default swaps might be used to hedge against this volatility. The Treasury Department may need to employ extraordinary measures to fund the government until the so-called X date, when it can no longer meet all its obligations.

In summary, Trump’s presidency is expected to bring fiscal challenges that could strain the U.S. bond market, with rising deficits and potential volatility as key concerns for investors.


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