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Mojtaba Khamenei: The Rise of Iran’s New Supreme Leader

                      A picture of Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is displayed on a screen in Tehran Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, has emerged as Iran’s new supreme leader following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.–Israeli strikes. His appointment by the Assembly of Experts comes at a moment of profound crisis for Iran, as the country faces regional war, internal instability, and intense international scrutiny.  A Secretive Heir With Deep Establishment Ties Mojtaba, long considered influential behind the scenes, is a mid-ranking cleric with strong connections to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). His political rise signals continuity of Iran’s hardline establishment, despite the country’s ideological discomfort with hereditary succession.  A Leader Shaped by Conflict and Loss His ascension comes amid the “Ramadan War,” during which he was reportedly wound...
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Fiscal Challenges Ahead: U.S. Bonds Face Uncertainty Under Trump’s New Term

 

As Donald Trump begins his new term as U.S. President, the fiscal landscape presents significant challenges that could impact the nation’s bond market. The prospect of rising government debt levels has already influenced investor sentiment, pushing U.S. government bond yields higher.

Trump’s trade and tax policies are expected to reignite inflation, exacerbating the fiscal strain. This scenario has led to concerns among investors, often referred to as “bond vigilantes,” who may dump government debt over worries about increasing deficits. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has already risen to 4.479% in response to these concerns.

A critical hurdle for the new administration will be the reinstatement of the federal debt ceiling on January 2, 2025. This ceiling, which was suspended in 2023, must be approved by a majority of lawmakers. Past disputes over the debt limit have brought the country close to default, affecting its credit rating.

Analysts predict volatility in the bond market around these negotiations, even if a default is avoided. Measures such as Treasury puts or credit default swaps might be used to hedge against this volatility. The Treasury Department may need to employ extraordinary measures to fund the government until the so-called X date, when it can no longer meet all its obligations.

In summary, Trump’s presidency is expected to bring fiscal challenges that could strain the U.S. bond market, with rising deficits and potential volatility as key concerns for investors.


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