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Jeneroux’s Defection Pushes Carney Closer to Majority

                                                      MP Matt Jeneroux Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government has moved one seat nearer to a majority after Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux crossed the floor from the Conservatives to join the governing caucus. Jeneroux, who had previously announced plans to resign, instead opted to align himself with Carney’s agenda, becoming the latest in a string of Conservative MPs to defect. Carney welcomed Jeneroux publicly, highlighting his experience and announcing that the Alberta MP will serve as a special adviser on economic and security partnerships. The move spares the government a byelection in Edmonton and adds further momentum to the Liberals’ recent gains, which have included multiple high‑profile floor crossings.  Jeneroux’s decision underscores shifting political dynami...
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Fiscal Challenges Ahead: U.S. Bonds Face Uncertainty Under Trump’s New Term

 

As Donald Trump begins his new term as U.S. President, the fiscal landscape presents significant challenges that could impact the nation’s bond market. The prospect of rising government debt levels has already influenced investor sentiment, pushing U.S. government bond yields higher.

Trump’s trade and tax policies are expected to reignite inflation, exacerbating the fiscal strain. This scenario has led to concerns among investors, often referred to as “bond vigilantes,” who may dump government debt over worries about increasing deficits. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has already risen to 4.479% in response to these concerns.

A critical hurdle for the new administration will be the reinstatement of the federal debt ceiling on January 2, 2025. This ceiling, which was suspended in 2023, must be approved by a majority of lawmakers. Past disputes over the debt limit have brought the country close to default, affecting its credit rating.

Analysts predict volatility in the bond market around these negotiations, even if a default is avoided. Measures such as Treasury puts or credit default swaps might be used to hedge against this volatility. The Treasury Department may need to employ extraordinary measures to fund the government until the so-called X date, when it can no longer meet all its obligations.

In summary, Trump’s presidency is expected to bring fiscal challenges that could strain the U.S. bond market, with rising deficits and potential volatility as key concerns for investors.


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