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Weekly Market Snapshot: Geopolitical Fog Meets Earnings Season as Markets Grind Higher

Week ending April 24, 2026 | Canadian Money Brief – moneysavings.ca Markets this week found themselves caught between two powerful forces: a roaring U.S. earnings season pushing stocks to fresh records, and a simmering Middle East conflict keeping oil elevated and investor nerves frayed. For Canadians, that makes for a complicated but important picture heading into the last week of April. TSX Composite: Stuck in the Mud The S&P/TSX Composite spent the week trading in a tight band near the 34,000 mark, unable to mount a meaningful rally. Tuesday delivered a sharp blow — the index plunged over 550 points to close at 33,808 as U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed after U.S. Vice President JD Vance abruptly cancelled his Pakistan trip, where he was set to lead negotiations. Wednesday brought a partial recovery, with the TSX adding roughly 0.4% to close at 33,955 , helped by gains in energy and mining stocks following President Trump's announcement of an indefinite ceasefire ex...
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Fiscal Challenges Ahead: U.S. Bonds Face Uncertainty Under Trump’s New Term

 

As Donald Trump begins his new term as U.S. President, the fiscal landscape presents significant challenges that could impact the nation’s bond market. The prospect of rising government debt levels has already influenced investor sentiment, pushing U.S. government bond yields higher.

Trump’s trade and tax policies are expected to reignite inflation, exacerbating the fiscal strain. This scenario has led to concerns among investors, often referred to as “bond vigilantes,” who may dump government debt over worries about increasing deficits. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has already risen to 4.479% in response to these concerns.

A critical hurdle for the new administration will be the reinstatement of the federal debt ceiling on January 2, 2025. This ceiling, which was suspended in 2023, must be approved by a majority of lawmakers. Past disputes over the debt limit have brought the country close to default, affecting its credit rating.

Analysts predict volatility in the bond market around these negotiations, even if a default is avoided. Measures such as Treasury puts or credit default swaps might be used to hedge against this volatility. The Treasury Department may need to employ extraordinary measures to fund the government until the so-called X date, when it can no longer meet all its obligations.

In summary, Trump’s presidency is expected to bring fiscal challenges that could strain the U.S. bond market, with rising deficits and potential volatility as key concerns for investors.


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