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Zelensky Faces Stark Choices as Trump Pushes Peace Framework

Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll sit before closed-door talks with Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak (not pictured). As pressure mounts in the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified efforts to secure a peace deal , urging Kyiv to accept a revised framework before the American Thanksgiving holiday. The proposal, reportedly a 28-point plan , has drawn sharp criticism for heavily favoring Moscow’s interests, including demands that Ukraine cede territory, limit its military, and abandon aspirations to join NATO. In recent days, Trump warned that Ukraine risks losing access to U.S. intelligence and weapons if it fails to agree to the plan by November 27. His administration has framed the deadline as a necessary step to end the nearly four-year war, but many in Kyiv view it as coercive. Ukrainian President V...
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Fiscal Challenges Ahead: U.S. Bonds Face Uncertainty Under Trump’s New Term

 

As Donald Trump begins his new term as U.S. President, the fiscal landscape presents significant challenges that could impact the nation’s bond market. The prospect of rising government debt levels has already influenced investor sentiment, pushing U.S. government bond yields higher.

Trump’s trade and tax policies are expected to reignite inflation, exacerbating the fiscal strain. This scenario has led to concerns among investors, often referred to as “bond vigilantes,” who may dump government debt over worries about increasing deficits. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has already risen to 4.479% in response to these concerns.

A critical hurdle for the new administration will be the reinstatement of the federal debt ceiling on January 2, 2025. This ceiling, which was suspended in 2023, must be approved by a majority of lawmakers. Past disputes over the debt limit have brought the country close to default, affecting its credit rating.

Analysts predict volatility in the bond market around these negotiations, even if a default is avoided. Measures such as Treasury puts or credit default swaps might be used to hedge against this volatility. The Treasury Department may need to employ extraordinary measures to fund the government until the so-called X date, when it can no longer meet all its obligations.

In summary, Trump’s presidency is expected to bring fiscal challenges that could strain the U.S. bond market, with rising deficits and potential volatility as key concerns for investors.


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