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Tariff Ultimatum on Iran Trade Sparks Global Tension

                                                Doing Business With Iran? Trump Says Pay a 25% US Tariff. A new 25% tariff threat from President Donald Trump has sent a jolt through international markets, after he declared that any nation continuing to trade with Iran would face steep U.S. penalties. The announcement, delivered abruptly through social media, signaled a sharp escalation in Washington’s effort to isolate Tehran economically. The move comes amid heightened criticism of Iran’s internal crackdown on dissent, which U.S. officials argue warrants stronger international pressure. By targeting not just Iran but its trading partners, the administration aims to force countries—including major global players—to reconsider their economic ties with Tehran. The threat immediately stirred uncertainty across global markets. Oil prices climbed...
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Fiscal Challenges Ahead: U.S. Bonds Face Uncertainty Under Trump’s New Term

 

As Donald Trump begins his new term as U.S. President, the fiscal landscape presents significant challenges that could impact the nation’s bond market. The prospect of rising government debt levels has already influenced investor sentiment, pushing U.S. government bond yields higher.

Trump’s trade and tax policies are expected to reignite inflation, exacerbating the fiscal strain. This scenario has led to concerns among investors, often referred to as “bond vigilantes,” who may dump government debt over worries about increasing deficits. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has already risen to 4.479% in response to these concerns.

A critical hurdle for the new administration will be the reinstatement of the federal debt ceiling on January 2, 2025. This ceiling, which was suspended in 2023, must be approved by a majority of lawmakers. Past disputes over the debt limit have brought the country close to default, affecting its credit rating.

Analysts predict volatility in the bond market around these negotiations, even if a default is avoided. Measures such as Treasury puts or credit default swaps might be used to hedge against this volatility. The Treasury Department may need to employ extraordinary measures to fund the government until the so-called X date, when it can no longer meet all its obligations.

In summary, Trump’s presidency is expected to bring fiscal challenges that could strain the U.S. bond market, with rising deficits and potential volatility as key concerns for investors.


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