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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Israeli Cabinet to Vote on Ceasefire Deal with Lebanon

 

The Israeli cabinet is set to convene on Tuesday to vote on a proposed ceasefire deal with Lebanon, according to a senior Israeli official. This meeting comes amid ongoing hostilities and follows a year of cross-border hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.

The proposed deal, backed by the United States, includes an Israeli military withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the deployment of Lebanese army troops in the border region within 60 days. A five-country committee, including France and chaired by the United States, will monitor compliance with the ceasefire.

Despite the diplomatic progress, tensions remain high as both sides continue to engage in military actions. Israeli airstrikes have targeted Hezbollah-controlled areas in Beirut, while Hezbollah has launched rocket attacks on Israel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office has yet to comment on the reports, but the senior Israeli official confirmed that the cabinet meeting is intended to approve the ceasefire text.

The outcome of Tuesday's vote could mark a significant step towards ending the conflict and bringing stability to the region.




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