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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Liberals' GST Break Expected to Pass Today

 

Legislation to create a two-month-long GST holiday is expected to pass today in the House of Commons. The bill, introduced by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, aims to provide temporary relief to Canadians by eliminating the GST on a variety of holiday essentials from December 14, 2024, to February 15, 2025. 

The GST holiday will cover items such as children's clothes and toys, video games and consoles, Christmas trees, restaurant and catered meals, wine, beer, candy, and snacks. The government estimates that a family spending $2,000 on these items could save between $100 and $260, depending on the province.

The NDP has agreed to support the bill after Freeland separated the GST break from a proposed $250 rebate for working Canadians, which the NDP wants expanded to include non-working seniors and people with disabilities. The bill is expected to pass with the help of the NDP, despite opposition from the Conservatives, who have criticized the GST break as a "cheap gimmick".



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