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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Tariff Tipping Point: Trump Unleashes Reciprocal Tariffs

 

In a dramatic escalation of trade tensions, President Donald Trump declared today that reciprocal tariffs are set to take effect. Speaking in an emphatic post on his social media platform, Trump proclaimed, "Today is the big one: reciprocal tariffs!" The announcement signals that the administration will match any tariffs imposed on U.S. imports by other nations—a move aimed at leveling the playing field for American manufacturers.

While details remain sparse, the president hinted that the new policy will target countries that levy higher duties on U.S. goods, a tactic intended to protect domestic industries and generate additional government revenue. Economists, however, warn that such measures may ultimately burden American consumers with higher prices and disrupt global supply chains.

Market watchers are already anticipating swift retaliatory responses from key trading partners such as China, Canada, and Mexico. As the global trade landscape braces for further volatility, investors and businesses alike are keeping a close eye on the unfolding tariff war, which could signal a new chapter in U.S. trade policy.

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