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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Kremlin Criticizes U.S.-Proposed Ceasefire as Favoring Ukraine

A senior Kremlin official has expressed skepticism over a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Yuri Ushakov, a top foreign policy aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, stated that the ceasefire would merely provide a temporary respite for Ukraine's military forces. Speaking to state television, Ushakov emphasized that Russia seeks a long-term peaceful settlement that addresses its strategic concerns and interests.

The proposal, endorsed by Ukraine, has been presented as a step toward de-escalating the three-year conflict. However, Ushakov criticized the initiative, suggesting it could be a tactical move to bolster Ukraine's military preparedness. The Kremlin has indicated that it requires more detailed information from the U.S. before taking a definitive stance on the matter.

The ceasefire proposal comes amid intensified diplomatic efforts by the U.S., with President Donald Trump urging both sides to consider the plan as a pathway to broader peace negotiations. While Ukraine has signaled its willingness to support the truce, Russia's response remains uncertain, with officials reiterating their focus on achieving a comprehensive and lasting resolution to the conflict.

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