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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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China's Bold Counterstrike in Escalating Trade War

China has intensified the global trade war by imposing sweeping tariffs of 34% on all U.S. goods, marking a significant escalation in its economic standoff with the United States. This move comes in response to President Donald Trump's recent "Liberation Day" tariffs, which raised U.S. tariff barriers to unprecedented levels. Beijing's retaliatory measures also include export controls on rare earth materials and the addition of several entities to its "unreliable entity" list.

The repercussions of this trade war are reverberating across global markets, with fears of a recession looming large. Major stock indices have suffered sharp declines, and investment banks are warning of a potential contraction in global trade volumes. As tensions rise, the World Trade Organization has been drawn into the fray, with China filing a lawsuit against the U.S. over its tariff policies.

This escalating conflict underscores the fragility of international trade relations and raises questions about the long-term impact on the global economy. Will cooler heads prevail, or is this just the beginning of a prolonged economic battle? Only time will tell.

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