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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Trump's Trade Diplomacy: A Step Toward Resolution with the EU

In a significant move, former U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed optimism about resolving trade disputes with the European Union (EU). This comes amidst ongoing tensions over tariffs and trade barriers that have strained transatlantic relations. Trump's announcement of a temporary 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs exceeding 10% signals a willingness to engage in constructive dialogue.

The EU has reciprocated by suspending its planned counter-tariffs for the same duration, creating a window for negotiations. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the importance of this pause, describing it as an opportunity to pursue a "frictionless" trading relationship. Both sides aim to address key issues, including tariffs on steel and aluminum, agricultural subsidies, and intellectual property rights.

This diplomatic effort could pave the way for a more collaborative relationship between the U.S. and the EU, potentially setting a precedent for future trade agreements worldwide. While challenges remain, the temporary halt in tariffs offers a glimmer of hope for resolving long-standing disputes and fostering economic cooperation.

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