5 Things to Know Today
Your morning briefing on what's moving Canadian wallets and markets — Thursday, June 5, 2026.
1 / Benefits
Your Grocery Benefit Cheque Lands Today
Today is the day millions of Canadians have been watching their bank accounts for. The federal government is issuing a one-time Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit (CGEB) top-up to more than 12 million eligible Canadians starting June 5, 2026. The payment equals roughly 50% of your annual GST/HST credit entitlement — so if you normally receive that credit, expect to see a notably larger-than-usual deposit.
The numbers: a family of four could receive up to $1,890 in 2026 (including the top-up), while a single person could receive up to $950. Your bank statement may still label the deposit as "GST/HST Credit" or "GST/HST RC150" — that's normal. The full rebrand to CGEB takes effect July 3, 2026, when the regular quarterly payments resume at a permanent 25% increase for the next five years.
Bottom line: No application needed — eligibility is determined automatically through your 2024 tax return. If you qualify and don't see the payment within a few business days, contact the CRA.
2 / Jobs
May Jobs Report Drops This Morning
Statistics Canada releases its Labour Force Survey for May this morning — the last major economic data point before the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision next Wednesday, June 10. Economists polled by Reuters are forecasting a modest gain of around 10,000 jobs in May, after a loss of nearly 18,000 positions in April and a rocky start to 2026 overall.
The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 6.9%, though RBC Economics is slightly more optimistic, projecting a tick down to 6.8% on the back of stabilizing labour demand and federal census hiring. So far in 2026, full-time positions have been particularly soft, with trade-exposed sectors absorbing most of the pain from U.S. tariff uncertainty and Middle East–driven energy costs.
Bottom line: A soft but not alarming number would reinforce the case for the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady next week. A significant miss could reopen rate-cut conversations.
3 / Bank of Canada
All Eyes on June 10 — Rate Hold Expected
With today's jobs data now the final major input, the Bank of Canada's June 10 decision is shaping up to be a hold at 2.25%. Markets are pricing in a very high probability of no change, with only a slim chance of a surprise hike. The BoC has held its rate steady since January 2026, carefully balancing two competing pressures: an economy still adjusting to U.S. tariffs on one side, and an oil price–driven inflation uptick on the other.
In its April statement, the central bank flagged that inflation has moved higher due to elevated energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict, and projected it could approach 3% before easing back toward the 2% target in 2027. Importantly, the Bank said both cuts and hikes remain on the table depending on how trade and energy risks evolve — a rare two-sided signal that has kept bond markets on edge.
Bottom line: For variable-rate mortgage holders, expect another week of holding your breath. The bigger wildcard remains the July 1 CUSMA trade review — that could shift the BoC's calculus heading into summer.
4 / Oil & Markets
Oil Pulls Back, TSX Under Pressure
Crude oil prices have been the dominant story on Canadian markets for weeks, and this morning is no different. WTI crude was trading near US$92–93 per barrel heading into the session — down sharply from a May peak above US$106 — as a reported ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon offered some relief to global supply anxiety. Despite the pullback, oil remains roughly 45–50% higher than a year ago, a major factor behind rising inflation and the TSX energy sector's exceptional year-to-date run of approximately 27%.
The broader TSX Composite has been navigating a "tug of war" between geopolitics and AI optimism, according to market strategists. After a volatile week, the index was hovering near the 34,700 level. The Canadian dollar was trading in the low-72-cent range against the U.S. dollar — broadly stable but well off its earlier-year highs. OPEC, meanwhile, reiterated at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum that it expects robust oil demand growth and has no plans to change its production targets.
Bottom line: The Strait of Hormuz situation remains the key variable for oil — and for Canadian energy stocks. Any diplomatic progress could push oil down further; any escalation could spike it again.
5 / Federal Policy
What the Spring Economic Update Means for Your Wallet
Now that the Carney government's Spring Economic Update (tabled April 28) is moving toward implementation, Canadians are starting to feel its ripple effects. Today's grocery benefit payment is one direct result. Other key affordability measures from the update include a suspended federal fuel excise tax — reducing gas prices by up to 10 cents per litre — and new supports aimed at skilled tradespeople, including increased limits on relocation expense deductions and a $400/week income top-up for apprentices during in-class training.
The broader update includes $37.5 billion in new spending across two main pillars: nation-building investments (anchored by a new $25-billion Canada Strong Fund sovereign wealth fund) and affordability/community measures. The deficit for 2025-26 came in $11.5 billion lower than previously projected, giving the government some fiscal breathing room — though future deficits remain elevated. The next key date to watch: the July 1 CUSMA trade review, which will shape the fall budget and Canada's broader economic trajectory.
Bottom line: Between the grocery benefit, the fuel tax suspension, and the upcoming CGEB quarterly payments starting July 3, this summer has more direct cash relief for lower- and middle-income Canadians than any in recent memory.
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