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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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UK Manufacturing Faces Turbulent Times Amid Trade Challenges

British manufacturers are grappling with a challenging economic landscape as trade uncertainties and rising costs weigh heavily on the sector. The S&P Global UK Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing fell to 44.9 in March, marking its lowest point since October 2023. This decline reflects a contraction in activity, with new export orders dropping at the fastest rate since August 2023.

The downturn has been attributed to multiple factors, including the threat of tariffs from the United States, increased payroll taxes, and a rise in the national minimum wage. Smaller manufacturers have been hit particularly hard, with many reporting a decline in new orders and reduced business optimism. Only 44% of manufacturers expect output to increase over the coming year, a significant drop from 56% in the previous month.

Geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns in key markets such as the US and Europe have further compounded the challenges. Despite these headwinds, the services sector has shown resilience, offering a glimmer of hope for the broader economy.

The manufacturing sector now faces an uphill battle to regain momentum, with industry leaders calling for government intervention to address the mounting pressures.

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