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5 Things to Know Today: Fed Decision Looms, TSX Slides, Gas Prices Climb (Sept 16)

  Wednesday, September 16, 2026 The Fed's biggest decision in years lands at 2 p.m. ET today, the TSX and loonie are both licking their wounds, and drivers are paying more at the pump despite the gas tax holiday. Here's what's moving your money this morning. 1. The Fed Decides on Rates Today — and a Hike Looks All but Certain The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to follow at 2:30 p.m. Markets have priced in over 90% odds of a 25-basis-point hike, which would lift the target range to 3.75%–4.00% from 3.50%–3.75%, where it's sat since December. It would be the first hike of this cycle, driven by inflation still running above target even as the labour market holds up. What it means for you: A Fed hike widens the gap with the Bank of Canada's 2.25% rate, which tends to pressure the loonie lower and nudge Canadian bond yields — and by extension fixed mortgage pricing — upward. Watch for the reaction ...

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U.S. Signals Deadline for Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks

The United States has hinted at stepping away from its efforts to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine if significant progress is not achieved in the coming days. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking after high-level talks in Paris, emphasized the urgency of determining whether a peace deal is feasible in the short term.

Rubio described the discussions, which included U.S., Ukrainian, and European officials, as constructive and noted that they had outlined potential steps toward peace. However, he stressed that the U.S. cannot continue its involvement indefinitely without clear signs of progress. A follow-up meeting is expected to take place in London soon, which could be pivotal in deciding the future of these peace efforts.

The talks come amid growing concerns in Europe about the ongoing conflict and its broader implications. While some progress has been made, significant challenges remain, including disagreements over security guarantees and the conditions for a ceasefire. The U.S. administration has also faced mounting frustrations over the lack of resolution to this and other geopolitical challenges.

Rubio's remarks underline the delicate balance the U.S. is trying to maintain—pushing for peace while managing its own strategic priorities. The coming days will reveal whether these efforts can yield a breakthrough or if the U.S. will indeed "move on" from its mediation role.



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