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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Escalation in South Asia: India Strikes Pakistan Over Kashmir Attack, Islamabad Vows Retaliation

In a dramatic escalation of tensions between two nuclear-armed neighbors, India launched missile strikes on Pakistan early Wednesday, targeting what it described as terrorist infrastructure in response to a deadly attack on Hindu tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir last month. The attack, which claimed 26 lives, has been blamed on Pakistan-based militant groups, though Islamabad denies involvement.

Pakistan has condemned the strikes as a “blatant act of war”, reporting that at least 26 people were killed and 46 injured in the Indian assault. Pakistani officials claim that civilian sites, including mosques, were among the targets, contradicting India's assertion that it exercised “considerable restraint” in selecting its targets. 

The situation has sparked international concern, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres urging both nations to exercise military restraint. Meanwhile, Pakistan has vowed to retaliate, stating that it reserves the right to respond at a time and place of its choosing. 

With both sides exchanging heavy artillery fire across the contested Kashmir region, fears of a broader conflict loom large. The world watches anxiously as diplomatic efforts attempt to de-escalate the crisis. 


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