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Deep Dive into the Future: Canada’s High-Stakes Submarine Showdown
Prime Minister Mark Carney holds up a model submarine he was presented with as he tours Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), a submarine building facility in Kiel, Germany on Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2025.
Canada’s decades-old Victoria-class submarines — bought second-hand from the U.K. in 1998 — are nearing the end of their service life, with only one currently operational. Faced with a looming capability gap, Ottawa has launched an ambitious procurement program to secure a new fleet by 2035, a move that could finally push defence spending above NATO’s 2% GDP target.
The government has narrowed the competition to two shipbuilders: Hanwha Ocean of South Korea and ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) of Germany. Hanwha is pitching its lithium-ion battery-powered KSS-III, promising rapid delivery — four subs by 2035 if contracted next year — and a steady pace thereafter. TKMS is offering its hydrogen fuel cell and diesel-powered Type 212CD, already on order for Germany and Norway, emphasizing NATO interoperability and proven Arctic performance.
The stakes are high. Canada’s vast coastline, Arctic sovereignty, and global security commitments demand a fleet with stealth, endurance, and under-ice capability. With allies also shopping for submarines, delays could push Canada to the back of the production queue. The final decision, expected before 2028, will shape the Royal Canadian Navy’s underwater power for decades — and could redefine Canada’s role in global maritime security.
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