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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Effects on the Economy: Impact of Rising Interest Rates in Canada


Rising interest rates in Canada can have a significant impact on various aspects of the economy. Firstly, higher interest rates can lead to increased borrowing costs for businesses and individuals, making it more expensive to invest or make large purchases such as homes or vehicles. This can potentially slow down economic activity and reduce consumer spending, which is a key driver of growth.


 Additionally, rising interest rates can strengthen the Canadian dollar relative to other currencies, which can negatively affect export-oriented industries by making their products more expensive in foreign markets. Moreover, higher interest rates can attract foreign investors seeking higher returns on their investments, potentially leading to an inflow of foreign capital but also potentially making Canadian exports less competitive. Overall, while rising interest rates can help curb inflation and maintain the stability of the economy in the long run, their short-term impact may include slower economic growth, reduced consumer spending, and potential challenges for export-oriented sectors in Canada.






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