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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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BoC Keeps Rates Unchanged, Cuts Growth Outlook for 2023

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced on Wednesday that it will keep its key overnight rate at 5.0%, as expected by most analysts, while lowering its growth forecast for 2023 amid signs of slowing economic activity and easing inflation pressures.

The central bank said in a statement that it expects the Canadian economy to grow by 1.2% in 2023, down from its previous projection of 1.8% in July. The downward revision reflects the impact of supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, higher energy prices and weaker consumer confidence on domestic demand.

The BoC also said that it expects inflation to remain above its 2% target for another two years, averaging 3.5% through mid-2024, before declining to around 2.5% in the second half of 2024 and returning to the target by the end of 2025.

The central bank attributed the higher inflation outlook to the persistent effects of past price increases, especially in housing and food, as well as the recent surge in energy prices. However, it noted that some of these factors are likely to be transitory and that inflation will moderate as supply and demand in the economy approach balance.

The BoC maintained its stance that further rate hikes may be needed to keep inflation under control, but it did not signal any imminent tightening. The central bank said that it will continue to monitor a range of indicators, including wage growth, consumer spending, business investment and housing market conditions, to assess the appropriate pace and timing of future policy adjustments.

The BoC's decision was largely in line with market expectations, as most economists had anticipated no change in the policy rate this month. The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart after the announcement, trading at around 1.26 per U.S. dollar. The S&P/TSX composite index also showed little reaction, edging down 0.08% to close at 18,970.71 points.

The BoC's next interest rate announcement is scheduled for Dec. 6, 2023.

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