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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Loonie Hits Yearly Low Against USD Ahead of Fed Meeting

 

The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level against the US dollar in a year on Wednesday, as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. The loonie traded at 0.7876 USD, down 0.4% from Tuesday's close. The currency has lost more than 5% of its value since June, when it reached a six-year high of 0.8338 USD.

The Fed is widely expected to announce a tapering of its bond-buying program, which has been supporting the US economy during the pandemic. The central bank may also signal a faster pace of interest rate hikes, as inflation pressures mount. Higher US rates tend to boost the greenback and weigh on other currencies.

The Canadian dollar is also facing headwinds from domestic factors, such as the uncertainty over the outcome of the federal election, the slower pace of vaccination compared to other countries, and the weaker-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter. Analysts expect the Bank of Canada to maintain its accommodative stance until the recovery is more solid.

The loonie may find some support from rising oil prices, which are hovering near a three-year high. Canada is a major oil exporter and its currency tends to move in tandem with crude prices. However, the outlook for oil demand remains uncertain, as the delta variant of the coronavirus poses a risk to global growth.

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