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5 Things to Know Today: US Inflation Day, Canada’s Job Losses and Oil Near $106 | Oct. 14, 2026

  Canadian Money Brief  |  Wednesday, October 14, 2026 Good morning. The biggest number of the day lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, and it could shape where mortgage rates and the loonie go next. Here are the five things worth knowing before you start your day. 1 US inflation report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET September U.S. CPI is the last major inflation reading before the Fed meets Oct. 27–28. Economists expect headline inflation to climb to roughly 3.6%–3.7% from 3.4% in August, a gasoline-driven jump of about 0.6% on the month, while core inflation is seen cooling to around 0.2% month over month. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16, but September payrolls added just 29,000 jobs, and markets now see roughly a one-in-four chance of another hike in October, with December still largely priced in. What it means for you: A hotter-than-expected print can push bond yields higher, and Canadian fixed mortgage rates follow the 5-year bond. A cooler one eases the pressu...
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TSX set to end the year on a positive note amid global recovery hopes

The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) is expected to open higher on Friday, the last trading day of 2023, as investors remain optimistic about the global economic recovery from the pandemic.

The TSX closed at a record high of 23,456.78 on Thursday, boosted by gains in energy, financials, and materials sectors. The index has risen more than 20% this year, outperforming its U.S. peers, as Canada’s economy rebounded from the COVID-19 crisis.

The positive sentiment was also supported by the latest data showing that Canada’s GDP grew by 0.4% in October, beating expectations of a 0.2% increase. The growth was driven by the services sector, which expanded by 0.6%, while the goods-producing sector contracted by 0.1%.

On Friday, the TSX futures were up 0.3% at 7:30 a.m. ET, indicating a higher open for the cash market. The Canadian dollar was trading at 79.32 U.S. cents, slightly lower than Thursday’s close of 79.36 U.S. cents.

Meanwhile, the U.S. stock futures were also pointing to a higher open, as Wall Street looked to end the year with record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite have gained 18.7%, 26.9%, and 21.4% respectively this year, as the U.S. economy recovered from the pandemic-induced recession.

The U.S. markets will close early at 1 p.m. ET on Friday, while the TSX will close at its regular time of 4 p.m. ET. Both markets will be closed on Monday, January 1, 2024, for the New Year’s Day holiday.

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