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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Dow Jones Industrial Average Closes at Second-Straight Record High as Big Tech Kicks Off Earnings

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at a second-straight record high on Tuesday, as quarterly earnings from big tech companies were released and economic data showing ongoing labor market strength was digested. The Federal Reserve also kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday.

Microsoft, Alphabet, and AMD kicked off the earnings season for big tech with better-than-expected quarterly earnings. The trio’s earnings come just ahead of earnings from Amazon, Apple, and Meta due later this week. Collectively, the market capitalization of Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta accounted for the bulk of S&P 500’s 24% gain in 2023.

In other tech news, Super Micro Computer rose more than 3% after the data center hardware maker reported second-quarter results that topped Wall Street estimates amid a boost from artificial intelligence-led demand.

General Motors’ stock rose nearly 7% after the auto giant provided investors with an upbeat outlook for 2024 and signaled more capital could be returned to shareholders.

The U.S. Labor Department’s latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, a measure of labor demand, showed job openings in December climbed to 9.03 million, above economists’ estimates of 8.75 million. The ongoing signs of labor market strength arrived on the heels of data showing consumer confidence jumped to a 2-year high. The duo of reports, signaling economic strength, pushed 2-year Treasury yields higher, as investors bet that the data will likely encourage the Fed to maintain its higher-for-longer rate regime as the central bank kicked off its two-day meeting.


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