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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Red Sea Shipping Crisis Worsens After US and UK Strike Yemen

 

The Red Sea, a vital waterway for global trade, has become a hotspot of conflict and insecurity after the US and UK launched airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have been attacking commercial vessels with missiles and drones.

The airstrikes, which began on Thursday, were a response to the 27th Houthi attack on shipping since November, according to the US military. The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, have been targeting ships in the southern Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a narrow passage that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

The escalation of violence has disrupted the flow of oil, gas, grains, and manufactured goods through the region, which accounts for about 12% of global seaborne trade. Many shipping companies have suspended or diverted their operations, opting for the longer and more costly route around Africa. Some insurers have also raised their premiums or restricted their coverage for vessels passing through the area.

The shipping crisis has added to the humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen, where a civil war has been raging since 2015. The UN estimates that more than 20 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, and that millions are on the brink of famine. The airstrikes have also raised fears of a wider regional conflict, as Iran and its allies clash with the US and its allies over various issues, including the nuclear deal and Israel’s war in Gaza.

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