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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Powell’s Words Rattle Investors

 

US stock futures took a tumble today after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell poured cold water on hopes for an early interest rate cut. As we head into a busy week of corporate earnings, investors are closely watching the impact of Powell’s statements on the recent market rally. S&P 500 ( ^GSPC) futures slipped 0.2%, signaling a pullback from the benchmark’s record-setting run, Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI) futures shed roughly 0.2%. and  Nasdaq 100 ( ^NDX) futures dropped 0.1%.

Powell, in a recent “60 Minutes” interview, reiterated the central bank’s cautious approach to rate cuts. He emphasized that the “danger of moving too soon is the job’s not quite done” in quelling inflation. Traders responded by scaling back their bets on rate cuts, not only for March but also for May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

US bonds sank, with the 10-year Treasury yield ( ^TNX) rising about six basis points to 4.08%. This move reflects the market’s recalibration of expectations following Powell’s remarks.

Investors are now turning their attention to quarterly results. Last week’s triumphant reports from Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN) fueled the recent rally. Today, McDonald’s (MCD) disappointed with sales falling short of Wall Street estimates. The coming days will be crucial as a wave of corporate earnings reports determines whether the rally can sustain its momentum.


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