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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Canada’s Inflation Rate Eases to 2.8% in February

Canada’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 2.8% last month, marking a deceleration from the 2.9% increase recorded in January. The February consumer price index report, released by Statistics Canada, revealed several contributing factors to this slowdown.

  1. Grocery Prices: The easing of grocery prices played a significant role in the overall deceleration. Consumers experienced slower growth in food costs during February.

  2. Cellular and Internet Services: Sharp declines in cellular and internet services also contributed to the moderation in inflation. These essential services saw reduced price growth during the month.

While the easing inflation rate provides some relief, it remains essential to monitor economic indicators closely. The Bank of Canada continues to balance its monetary policy, considering both inflationary pressures and economic recovery.

As we navigate these fluctuations, Canadians can expect further updates on inflation trends. The unexpected dip to 2.8% in February underscores the need for vigilance in managing economic stability.


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